MMarketMath

BA

StalwartQuality: Medium (46/100)1 red flag

Boeing · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

$210.46

52w 176.77 – 254.35

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$166.3B

P/E

76.1

P/FCF

FCF yield

-1.1%

ROE

41.0%

Shldr yield

0.2%

div 0.2% + bb 0.0%

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 11.3× across 13 years, BA would trade near $15/share (25th–75th percentile: $13–$21); it trades at 156.2× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+10.3%

Rev 5y

+9.0%

Rev 10y

−0.7%

EPS 5y

EPS 10y

−10.4%

FCF 5y

FCF 10y

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $66.4B
2008: $60.9B
2009: $68.3B
2010: $64.3B
2011: $68.7B
2012: $81.7B
2013: $86.6B
2014: $90.8B
2015: $96.1B
2016: $93.5B
2017: $94.0B
2018: $101.1B
2019: $76.6B
2020: $58.2B
2021: $62.3B
2022: $66.6B
2023: $77.8B
2024: $66.5B
2025: $89.5B
$0$50.0B$100.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $4.1B
2008: $2.7B
2009: $1.3B
2010: $3.3B
2011: $4.0B
2012: $3.9B
2013: $4.6B
2014: $5.4B
2015: $5.2B
2016: $5.0B
2017: $8.5B
2018: $10.5B
2019: −$636.0M
2020: −$11.9B
2021: −$4.2B
2022: −$4.9B
2023: −$2.2B
2024: −$11.8B
2025: $2.2B
−$10.0B$0$10.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $7.9B
2008: −$2.1B
2009: $4.4B
2010: $1.8B
2011: $2.3B
2012: $5.8B
2013: $6.1B
2014: $6.6B
2015: $6.9B
2016: $7.9B
2017: $11.6B
2018: $13.6B
2019: −$4.3B
2020: −$19.7B
2021: −$4.4B
2022: $2.3B
2023: $4.4B
2024: −$14.3B
2025: −$1.9B
−$10.0B$0$10.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2008: 729.0M
2009: 713.4M
2010: 741.2M
2011: 750.6M
2012: 761.5M
2013: 767.6M
2014: 736.7M
2015: 695.0M
2016: 642.8M
2017: 610.0M
2018: 585.5M
2019: 565.4M
2020: 568.6M
2021: 587.6M
2022: 594.9M
2023: 605.8M
2024: 646.9M
2025: 762.3M
0200.0M400.0M600.0M
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

-20%0%20%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $3.9B
2008: $4.1B
2009: $1.3B
2010: $1.3B
2011: $1.2B
2012: $1.3B
2013: $4.3B
2014: $8.1B
2015: $9.2B
2016: $9.8B
2017: $12.7B
2018: $12.9B
2019: $7.3B
2020: $1.2B
2025: $331.0M
$0$5.0B$10.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$20.0B$40.0B$60.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $19.8B
Q3'23: $18.1B
Q4'23: $22.0B
Q1'24: $16.6B
Q2'24: $16.9B
Q3'24: $17.8B
Q4'24: $15.2B
Q1'25: $19.5B
Q2'25: $22.7B
Q3'25: $23.3B
Q4'25: $23.9B
Q1'26: $22.2B
Q2'26: $24.6B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: −$149.0M
Q3'23: −$1.6B
Q4'23: −$23.0M
Q1'24: −$343.0M
Q2'24: −$1.4B
Q3'24: −$6.2B
Q4'24: −$3.9B
Q1'25: −$37.0M
Q2'25: −$611.0M
Q3'25: −$5.3B
Q4'25: $8.2B
Q1'26: −$4.0M
Q2'26: −$444.0M
−$5.0B$0$5.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$24.6B+8.0%−$444.0M-0.67$1.4B
Q1'26$22.2B+14.0%−$4.0M-0.11−$179.0M
Q4'25 *$23.9B+57.1%$8.2B10.70$1.3B
Q3'25$23.3B+30.4%−$5.3B-7.14$1.1B
Q2'25$22.7B+34.9%−$611.0M-0.92$227.0M
Q1'25$19.5B+17.7%−$37.0M-0.16−$1.6B
Q4'24 *$15.2B−30.8%−$3.9B-5.50−$3.5B
Q3'24$17.8B−1.5%−$6.2B-9.97−$1.3B
Q2'24$16.9B−14.6%−$1.4B-2.33−$3.9B
Q1'24$16.6B−7.5%−$343.0M-0.56−$3.4B
Q4'23 *$22.0B+10.2%−$23.0M-0.03$3.4B
Q3'23$18.1B+13.5%−$1.6B-2.70$22.0M
Q2'23$19.8B+18.4%−$149.0M−177.2%-0.25$2.9B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+10.3%+9.0%−0.7%+2.2%
Operating cash flow−32.8%−31.7%−19.5%−6.6%
Free cash flow−20.1%−20.1%−3.1%−3.5%
EPS (diluted)−24.6%−24.6%−10.4%−3.8%
Equity+48.7%+48.7%−1.5%+4.6%
LT debt−1.8%−3.2%+20.0%+10.9%
Diluted shares+8.6%+6.0%+0.9%+0.2%
Stock price−2.1%−0.8%+5.9%+9.4%

$100, 3 years ago

$94vs $176 in SPY

-2.1% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$96vs $181 in SPY

-0.8% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$177vs $412 in SPY

5.9% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$387vs $813 in SPY

9.4% vs 15.0%/yr

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

1.8%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

0.5%

MC vs 10× OCF

15.96

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

SBC / FCF

Owner earnings

−$2.3B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

-1.4%

Share count 5y

+0.3%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

17.2%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.11

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Checklist

5 of 20 checks pass · 25%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

1/5

  • Revenue growth

    9.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • FCF growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • Revenue rises consistently

    6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    fail
  • FCF consistently positive

    5 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    fail
  • Profitable every year

    4 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    fail
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    -31.7% vs 9.0% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

2/7

  • Net margin

    2.5% · ≥ 8%

    fail
  • Operating margin

    4.8% · ≥ 10%

    fail
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    4.8% vs 5.3% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass
  • Return on equity

    41.0% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    1.8% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • FCF margin

    -2.1% · ≥ 5%

    fail
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $1.1B vs NI $2.2B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    fail

Balance Sheet

1/3

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    na
  • Cash cushion

    20% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail
  • Leverage

    9.87 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    fail
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $5.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

1/2

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    0.3% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    na
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    na
  • Repurchases are a habit

    4 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    fail

Valuation Discipline

0/3

  • FCF yield

    -1.1% · ≥ 3%

    fail
  • Earnings multiple

    76.1 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    na
  • Shareholder yield

    0.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Negative free cash flow

Operating cash flow did not cover capital expenditures in the latest fiscal year.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202589,4634,2894,2812,2352.481,0652,942-1,87733142610,92153,8485,454762
202466,517-1,991-10,707-11,817-18.36-12,0802,230-14,31040713,80153,625-3,908647
202377,7947,724-773-2,222-3.675,9601,5274,43369012,69152,055-17,233606
202266,6083,530-3,519-4,935-8.303,5121,2222,29072514,61456,794-15,883595
202162,2863,049-2,870-4,202-7.15-3,416980-4,3968338,05257,921-14,999588
202058,158-5,685-12,767-11,873-20.88-18,4101,303-19,7131,1582507,75263,380-18,316569
201976,5594,466-1,975-636-1.12-2,4461,834-4,2804,6302,6512129,48520,964-8,617565
2018101,12719,63711,98710,46017.8515,3221,72213,6003,9469,0002027,63710,657339586
201794,00517,39310,3448,45813.8513,3461,73911,6073,4179,2362028,8139,7821,656610
201693,49614,4706,5275,0347.8310,4962,6137,8832,7567,0011908,8019,568817643
201596,11414,0267,4435,1767.449,3632,4506,9132,4906,75118911,3028,7306,335695
201490,76214,0107,4735,4467.388,8582,2366,6222,1156,00119511,7338,1418,665737
201386,62313,3556,5624,5855.968,1792,0986,0811,4672,8012069,0888,07214,875768
201281,69813,0336,2903,9005.117,5081,7035,8051,32219310,3418,9735,867762
201168,73512,8475,8234,0185.344,0231,7132,3101,24418610,04910,0183,515751
201064,30612,4634,9713,3074.452,9521,1251,8271,2532155,35911,4732,766741
200968,28111,7412,0961,3121.845,6031,1864,4171,220502389,21512,2172,128713
200860,90910,5573,9502,6723.67-4011,674-2,0751,1922,9372093,2686,952-1,294729
200766,38712,9855,8304,0745.289,5841,7317,8531,0962,7752877,0429,078

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.