AXP
American Express · Financials · Consumer Finance
$337.33
52w 290.97 – 387.49
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$227.8B
P/E
20.9
P/FCF
14.2
FCF yield
7.1%
ROE
32.4%
Shldr yield
3.6%
div 1.0% + bb 2.6%
What today's price assumes
At $227.8B, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 5.5% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $361 · $403 · $502 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 7.4× across 14 years, AXP would trade near $203/share (25th–75th percentile: $153–$249); it trades at 12.4× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+6.5%
Rev 5y
+13.5%
Rev 10y
+2.3%
EPS 5y
+32.5%
EPS 10y
+10.7%
FCF 5y
+31.2%
FCF 10y
+5.5%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $11.2B | +8.6% | $3.1B | +7.8% | 4.53 | $5.4B |
| Q1'26 | $10.5B | +9.3% | $3.0B | +15.0% | 4.28 | $3.8B |
| Q4'25 * | $10.9B | +9.9% | $2.5B | +13.5% | 3.52 | $3.1B |
| Q3'25 | $10.4B | +7.2% | $2.9B | +15.8% | 4.14 | $6.2B |
| Q2'25 | $10.3B | +5.1% | $2.9B | −4.3% | 4.08 | $4.4B |
| Q1'25 | $9.6B | +3.1% | $2.6B | +6.0% | 3.64 | $4.8B |
| Q4'24 * | $10.0B | +4.1% | $2.2B | +12.3% | 3.04 | $5.8B |
| Q3'24 | $9.7B | +3.6% | $2.5B | +2.3% | 3.49 | −$1.8B |
| Q2'24 | $9.8B | +4.1% | $3.0B | +38.7% | 4.15 | $4.5B |
| Q1'24 | $9.3B | +5.6% | $2.4B | +34.2% | 3.33 | $5.6B |
| Q4'23 * | $9.6B | +5.4% | $1.9B | +23.0% | 2.62 | $6.8B |
| Q3'23 | $9.4B | +7.4% | $2.5B | +30.4% | 3.30 | $8.2B |
| Q2'23 | $9.4B | +7.5% | $2.2B | +10.7% | 2.89 | $3.9B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +6.5% | +13.5% | +2.3% | +2.7% |
| Operating cash flow | −4.4% | +26.9% | +5.6% | +4.9% |
| Free cash flow | −5.9% | +31.2% | +5.5% | +4.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | +16.0% | +32.5% | +10.7% | +10.7% |
| Equity | +10.6% | +7.8% | +4.9% | +3.9% |
| LT debt | +9.8% | +5.6% | +1.6% | −1.1% |
| Diluted shares | −2.5% | −2.9% | −3.6% | −3.5% |
| Stock price | +30.3% | +16.7% | +19.4% | +15.2% |
$100, 3 years ago
$221vs $176 in SPY
30.3% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$216vs $181 in SPY
16.7% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$590vs $412 in SPY
19.4% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$835vs $813 in SPY
15.2% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$4.35
$156.0B created / $35.8B retained
Last 10 years
$3.65
$197.4B created / $54.1B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
20.5%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
7.8%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.23
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
3.5y
SBC / FCF
3.4%
Owner earnings
$15.5B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
6.8%
Share count 5y
−2.9%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 10.5% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 141.1% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 14.8% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
22 of 24 checks pass · 92%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
13.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
32.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
31.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
26.9% vs 13.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/5
- pass
Net margin
26.2% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
32.4% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
20.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
38.7% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $18.4B vs NI $10.8B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
3.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
85% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
1.68 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$33.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-2.9% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
3% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
51% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
9 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
4/4
- pass
FCF yield
7.1% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
20.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
3.0% vs 5.5% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
3.6% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41,304 | — | — | 10,833 | 15.38 | 18,428 | 2,425 | 16,003 | 2,271 | 5,814 | 551 | 47,792 | 56,387 | 33,474 | 696 |
| 2024 | 38,825 | — | — | 10,129 | 14.01 | 14,050 | 1,911 | 12,139 | 1,999 | 6,020 | 504 | 40,640 | 49,715 | 30,264 | 713 |
| 2023 | 37,218 | — | — | 8,374 | 11.21 | 18,559 | 1,563 | 16,996 | 1,780 | 3,650 | 450 | 46,596 | 47,866 | 28,057 | 736 |
| 2022 | 34,219 | — | — | 7,514 | 9.85 | 21,079 | 1,855 | 19,224 | 1,565 | 3,502 | 375 | 33,914 | 42,573 | 24,711 | 752 |
| 2021 | 27,716 | — | — | 8,060 | 10.02 | 14,645 | 1,550 | 13,095 | 1,448 | 7,652 | 330 | 22,028 | 38,675 | 22,177 | 790 |
| 2020 | 21,974 | — | — | 3,135 | 3.77 | 5,591 | 1,478 | 4,113 | 1,474 | 1,029 | 249 | 32,965 | 42,952 | 22,984 | 806 |
| 2019 | 28,159 | — | — | 6,759 | 7.99 | 13,632 | 1,645 | 11,987 | 1,422 | — | 283 | 24,446 | 57,835 | 23,071 | 830 |
| 2018 | 26,607 | — | — | 6,921 | — | 8,930 | 1,310 | 7,620 | 1,324 | 1,600 | 283 | 27,808 | 58,423 | 22,290 | 859 |
| 2017 | 24,780 | — | — | 2,748 | — | 13,540 | 1,062 | 12,478 | 1,251 | 4,300 | 282 | 33,263 | 55,804 | 18,261 | 886 |
| 2016 | 24,235 | — | — | 5,375 | — | 8,291 | 1,375 | 6,916 | 1,207 | 4,400 | 254 | 25,494 | 46,990 | 20,523 | 935 |
| 2015 | 32,818 | — | — | 5,163 | — | 10,706 | 1,341 | 9,365 | 1,172 | 4,500 | 234 | 23,239 | 48,061 | 20,673 | 1,003 |
| 2010 | 27,819 | — | — | 4,057 | 3.35 | 8,935 | 878 | 8,057 | 867 | 590 | 287 | 654 | 66,416 | 18,794 | 1,195 |
| 2009 | 24,523 | — | 2,841 | 2,130 | 1.54 | 6,337 | 722 | 5,615 | 924 | 0 | 230 | 4,064 | 77,300 | 12,637 | 1,171 |
| 2008 | 28,365 | — | 3,581 | 2,699 | 2.32 | 7,773 | 977 | 6,796 | 836 | 218 | 256 | 20,550 | 60,041 | 11,841 | 1,156 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.