MMarketMath

AVGO

Fast growerQuality: High (80/100)1 red flag

Broadcom · Information Technology · Semiconductors

$358.76

52w 287.17 – 495.00

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$1.71T

P/E

75.8

P/FCF

65.1

FCF yield

1.5%

ROE

28.4%

Shldr yield

0.8%

div 0.6% + bb 0.1%

What today's price assumes

At $1.71T, the market is pricing in 23.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 29.2% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $86 · $193 · $279 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 14.2× across 10 years, AVGO would trade near $82/share (25th–75th percentile: $72–$115); it trades at 62.0× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+24.4%

Rev 5y

+21.7%

Rev 10y

+19.1%

EPS 5y

+49.4%

EPS 10y

FCF 5y

+18.3%

FCF 10y

+29.2%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2016–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2016: $13.2B
2017: $17.6B
2018: $20.8B
2019: $22.6B
2020: $23.9B
2021: $27.4B
2022: $33.2B
2023: $35.8B
2024: $51.6B
2025: $63.9B
$0$20.0B$40.0B$60.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Net income

2016: −$1.7B
2017: $1.7B
2018: $12.3B
2019: $2.7B
2020: $3.0B
2021: $6.7B
2022: $11.5B
2023: $14.1B
2024: $5.9B
2025: $23.1B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Free cash flow

2016: $2.7B
2017: $5.5B
2018: $8.2B
2019: $9.3B
2020: $11.6B
2021: $13.3B
2022: $16.3B
2023: $17.6B
2024: $19.4B
2025: $26.9B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2016: 3.8B
2017: 4.2B
2018: 4.3B
2019: 4.1B
2020: 4.2B
2021: 4.2B
2022: 4.2B
2023: 4.3B
2024: 4.8B
2025: 4.9B
02.0B4.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Margins

0%25%50%75%1618202224
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2016: $716.0M
2017: $1.7B
2018: $10.2B
2019: $9.7B
2020: $5.2B
2021: $5.9B
2022: $13.7B
2023: $13.5B
2024: $17.0B
2025: $13.6B
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$20.0B$40.0B$60.0B1618202224
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $8.7B
Q3'23: $8.9B
Q4'23: $9.3B
Q1'24: $12.0B
Q2'24: $12.5B
Q3'24: $13.1B
Q4'24: $14.1B
Q1'25: $14.9B
Q2'25: $15.0B
Q3'25: $16.0B
Q4'25: $18.0B
Q1'26: $19.3B
Q2'26: $22.2B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $3.5B
Q3'23: $3.3B
Q4'23: $3.5B
Q1'24: $1.3B
Q2'24: $2.1B
Q3'24: −$1.9B
Q4'24: $4.3B
Q1'25: $5.5B
Q2'25: $5.0B
Q3'25: $4.1B
Q4'25: $8.5B
Q1'26: $7.3B
Q2'26: $9.3B
$0$5.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$22.2B+47.9%$9.3B+87.5%1.91$10.5B
Q1'26$19.3B+29.5%$7.3B+33.5%1.50$8.3B
Q4'25 *$18.0B+28.2%$8.5B+97.0%1.75$7.7B
Q3'25$16.0B+22.0%$4.1B0.85$7.2B
Q2'25$15.0B+20.2%$5.0B+134.1%1.03$6.6B
Q1'25$14.9B+24.7%$5.5B+315.3%1.14$6.1B
Q4'24 *$14.1B+51.2%$4.3B+22.7%0.91$5.6B
Q3'24$13.1B+47.3%−$1.9B−156.8%-0.40$5.0B
Q2'24$12.5B+43.0%$2.1B−39.1%0.44$4.6B
Q1'24$12.0B+34.2%$1.3B−64.9%0.28$4.8B
Q4'23 *$9.3B+4.1%$3.5B+4.9%-14.42$4.8B
Q3'23$8.9B+4.9%$3.3B+7.4%0.77$4.7B
Q2'23$8.7B+7.8%$3.5B+34.4%8.15$4.5B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+24.4%+21.7%
Operating cash flow+18.1%+18.0%
Free cash flow+18.2%+18.3%
EPS (diluted)+21.6%+49.4%
Equity+53.0%+27.8%
LT debt+16.6%+9.0%
Diluted shares+4.7%+3.2%
Stock price+59.1%+51.3%+38.8%+39.9%

$100, 3 years ago

$403vs $176 in SPY

59.1% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$793vs $181 in SPY

51.3% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$2,653vs $412 in SPY

38.8% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$15,317vs $813 in SPY

39.9% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$89.43

$1.80T created / $20.1B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

19.2%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

1.5%

MC vs 10× OCF

6.37

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

2.3y

SBC / FCF

28.1%

Owner earnings

$19.3B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

1.1%

Share count 5y

+2.8%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

4.0%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.00

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 73.5% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 21.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 16.1% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

20 of 27 checks pass · 74%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

6/7

  • Revenue growth

    21.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    49.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    18.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Revenue rises consistently

    9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    18.0% vs 21.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

7/7

  • Net margin

    36.2% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    39.9% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    67.8% vs 66.5% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass
  • Return on equity

    28.4% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    19.2% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    42.1% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $27.5B vs NI $23.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    2.3y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    26% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail
  • Leverage

    0.76 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $81.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    13% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

2/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    2.8% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail
  • Stock comp restrained

    28% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    fail
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    51% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    6 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

1/4

  • FCF yield

    1.5% · ≥ 3%

    fail
  • Earnings multiple

    75.8 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    23.9% vs 29.2% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass
  • Shareholder yield

    0.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Shareholder dilution

Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202563,88743,29425,48423,1264.7727,53762326,91411,1422,4507,56816,17861,98481,2924,853
202451,57432,50913,4635,8951.2319,96254819,4149,8147,1765,7419,34866,29567,6784,778
202335,81924,69016,20714,0823.3018,08545217,6337,6455,8242,17114,18937,62123,9884,272
202233,20322,09514,22511,4952.6516,73642416,3126,7337,0001,53312,41639,07522,7094,232
202127,45016,8448,5196,7361.5213,76444313,3215,91301,70412,16339,44024,9624,232
202023,88813,5164,0142,9600.6412,06146311,5985,23501,9767,61840,23523,8744,153
201922,59712,4833,4442,7240.659,6974329,2654,2355,4352,1855,05530,01124,9414,133
201820,84810,7335,13512,2592.888,8806358,2452,9217,2581,2274,29217,49326,6574,252
201717,6368,5092,3711,6920.416,5511,0695,4821,653092111,20417,43120,2854,153
201613,2405,940-409-1,739-0.493,4117232,68871606793,09721,8763,778

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.