MMarketMath

APO

Fast growerQuality: Medium (66/100)

Apollo Global Management · Financials · Asset Management & Custody Banks

$132.79

52w 99.56 – 153.29

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$78.4B

P/E

22.4

P/FCF

10.8

FCF yield

9.2%

ROE

15.0%

Shldr yield

2.5%

div 1.5% + bb 1.0%

What today's price assumes

At $78.4B, the market is pricing in -0.8% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth).

Simple DCF per-share range: $187 · $251 · $313 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+43.0%

Rev 5y

+68.6%

Rev 10y

+68.6%

EPS 5y

+98.9%

EPS 10y

+98.9%

FCF 5y

FCF 10y

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2020–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2020: $2.4B
2021: $6.0B
2022: $11.0B
2023: $32.6B
2024: $26.1B
2025: $32.0B
$0$10.0B$20.0B$30.0B
20
21
22
23
24
25

Net income

2020: $157.0M
2021: $1.8B
2022: −$2.0B
2023: $5.0B
2024: $4.6B
2025: $3.5B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
20
21
22
23
24
25

Free cash flow

2020: −$1.6B
2021: $1.1B
2022: $3.8B
2023: $6.3B
2024: $3.3B
2025: $7.2B
$0$2.5B$5.0B
20
21
22
23
24
25

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2020: 562.4M
2021: 584.7M
2022: 584.7M
2023: 588.8M
2024: 604.0M
2025: 593.7M
0200.0M400.0M600.0M
20
21
22
23
24
25

Margins

-50%0%202122232425
Net marginFCF margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2020: $642.0M
2021: $816.0M
2022: $1.6B
2023: $1.6B
2024: $2.0B
2025: $2.0B
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
20
21
22
23
24
25

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$10.0B$20.0B202122232425
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $13.7B
Q3'23: $2.6B
Q4'23: $11.0B
Q1'24: $7.0B
Q2'24: $6.0B
Q3'24: $7.8B
Q4'24: $5.3B
Q1'25: $5.5B
Q2'25: $6.8B
Q3'25: $9.8B
Q4'25: $9.9B
Q1'26: $5.1B
Q2'26: $11.2B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $599.0M
Q3'23: $682.0M
Q4'23: $2.8B
Q1'24: $1.4B
Q2'24: $853.0M
Q3'24: $811.0M
Q4'24: $1.5B
Q1'25: $442.0M
Q2'25: $630.0M
Q3'25: $1.7B
Q4'25: $684.0M
Q1'26: −$1.9B
Q2'26: $1.4B
$0$2.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$11.2B+63.7%$1.4B+116.0%2.15$2.9B
Q1'26$5.1B−8.8%−$1.9B−531.2%-3.27$1.6B
Q4'25 *$9.9B+86.7%$684.0M−54.0%1.09$4.7B
Q3'25$9.8B+26.4%$1.7B+114.1%2.78$303.0M
Q2'25$6.8B+13.2%$630.0M−26.1%0.99$1.3B
Q1'25$5.5B−21.2%$442.0M−69.0%0.68$1.0B
Q4'24 *$5.3B−52.2%$1.5B−46.1%2.41−$4.0M
Q3'24$7.8B+199.5%$811.0M+18.9%1.29$1.9B
Q2'24$6.0B−56.1%$853.0M+42.4%1.35$1.3B
Q1'24$7.0B+32.8%$1.4B+41.3%2.28$70.0M
Q4'23 *$11.0B+128.2%$2.8B+330.6%4.52$2.1B
Q3'23$2.6B−12.9%$682.0M1.10−$364.0M
Q2'23$13.7B+499.4%$599.0M1.00$3.6B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+43.0%+68.6%
Operating cash flow+24.1%
Free cash flow+24.1%
EPS (diluted)+16.9%+98.9%
Equity+52.0%+33.5%
LT debt+27.3%
Diluted shares+0.5%+1.1%
Stock price+16.6%+19.5%+26.4%+24.2%

$100, 3 years ago

$159vs $176 in SPY

16.6% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$244vs $181 in SPY

19.5% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$1,045vs $412 in SPY

26.4% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$2,568vs $813 in SPY

24.2% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$6.86

$56.3B created / $8.2B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

19.7%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

10.2%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.08

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

1.8y

SBC / FCF

10.9%

Owner earnings

$6.5B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

8.2%

Share count 5y

+1.1%

per year; negative = buybacks

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 56.1% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 72.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 40.9% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

20 of 22 checks pass · 91%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

5/6

  • Revenue growth

    68.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    98.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • Revenue rises consistently

    4 of 5 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    5 of 6 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    5 of 6 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    61.5% vs 68.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

5/5

  • Net margin

    10.9% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    · ≥ 10%

    na
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    15.0% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    19.7% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    22.6% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $7.2B vs NI $3.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    1.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    154% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    0.57 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $23.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    1.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail
  • Stock comp restrained

    11% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    27% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    6 of 6 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

3/3

  • FCF yield

    9.2% · ≥ 3%

    pass
  • Earnings multiple

    22.4 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    na
  • Shareholder yield

    2.5% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202532,0493,4925.547,2467,2461,20177378920,59113,36423,341594
202426,1144,5777.333,2533,2531,09289072117,11210,58817,253604
202332,6445,0478.286,3226,3221,0125611,02617,6918,09214,044589
202210,968-1,961-3.433,7893,7899626355408,9806,4726,640585
20215,9511,8392.961,0641,0645172991,1819173,1343,789585
20202,3541570.18-1,616-1,616550922131,5565,513562

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.