APH
Amphenol · Information Technology · Electronic Components
$155.55
52w 105.45 – 178.52
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$191.8B
P/E
45.1
P/FCF
43.9
FCF yield
2.3%
ROE
31.8%
Shldr yield
0.8%
div 0.4% + bb 0.3%
What today's price assumes
At $191.8B, the market is pricing in 18.4% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 19.4% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $54 · $121 · $175 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 23.0× across 10 years, APH would trade near $100/share (25th–75th percentile: $97–$127); it trades at 35.7× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+22.3%
Rev 5y
+21.8%
Rev 10y
+15.6%
EPS 5y
+27.6%
EPS 10y
+19.6%
FCF 5y
+27.2%
FCF 10y
+19.4%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2016–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $8.8B | +55.0% | $1.8B | +62.1% | 1.37 | $1.6B |
| Q1'26 | $7.6B | +58.4% | $933.0M | +26.5% | 0.72 | $1.1B |
| Q4'25 * | $6.4B | +49.1% | $1.2B | +60.2% | 0.93 | $1.7B |
| Q3'25 | $6.2B | +53.4% | $1.2B | +106.1% | 0.97 | $1.5B |
| Q2'25 | $5.7B | +56.5% | $1.1B | +107.9% | 0.86 | $1.4B |
| Q1'25 | $4.8B | +47.7% | $737.8M | +34.5% | 0.58 | $764.9M |
| Q4'24 * | $4.3B | +29.8% | $746.1M | +45.0% | 0.59 | $847.1M |
| Q3'24 | $4.0B | +26.2% | $604.4M | +17.6% | 0.48 | $704.0M |
| Q2'24 | $3.6B | +18.2% | $524.8M | +14.0% | 0.41 | $664.1M |
| Q1'24 | $3.3B | +9.5% | $548.7M | +24.9% | 0.44 | $599.5M |
| Q4'23 * | $3.3B | +2.7% | $514.4M | +1.4% | 0.06 | $841.8M |
| Q3'23 | $3.2B | −2.9% | $513.9M | +3.5% | 0.41 | $618.1M |
| Q2'23 | $3.1B | −2.6% | $460.5M | −2.5% | 0.37 | $536.4M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +22.3% | +21.8% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +35.2% | +27.6% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | +34.7% | +27.2% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +29.7% | +27.6% | — | — |
| Equity | +24.1% | +20.0% | — | — |
| LT debt | +47.1% | +32.0% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | +0.9% | +0.9% | — | — |
| Stock price | +53.4% | +33.5% | +27.0% | +25.5% |
$100, 3 years ago
$361vs $176 in SPY
53.4% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$425vs $181 in SPY
33.5% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$1,096vs $412 in SPY
27.0% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$3,023vs $813 in SPY
25.5% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$15.66
$147.1B created / $9.4B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
19.2%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
2.7%
MC vs 10× OCF
3.58
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
3.3y
SBC / FCF
3.1%
Owner earnings
$4.2B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.2%
Share count 5y
+0.4%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
10.0%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.09
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 66.0% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 39.7% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 26.2% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
23 of 27 checks pass · 85%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
21.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
27.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
27.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
27.6% vs 21.8% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
7/7
- pass
Net margin
18.5% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
25.4% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
36.9% vs 31.9% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
31.8% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
19.2% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
19.0% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $5.4B vs NI $4.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
3.3y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
76% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
1.09 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$13.4B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
6% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
0.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
3% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
34% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.3% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
45.1 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
18.4% vs 19.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23,095 | 8,518 | 5,869 | 4,270 | 3.34 | 5,375 | 997 | 4,378 | 802 | 665 | 135 | 11,131 | 14,565 | 13,413 | 1,278 |
| 2024 | 15,223 | 5,140 | 3,157 | 2,424 | 1.92 | 2,815 | 665 | 2,149 | 595 | 689 | 110 | 3,317 | 6,484 | 9,792 | 1,264 |
| 2023 | 12,555 | 4,084 | 2,560 | 1,928 | 1.55 | 2,529 | 373 | 2,156 | 501 | 585 | 99 | 1,475 | 3,984 | 8,347 | 1,241 |
| 2022 | 12,623 | 4,028 | 2,586 | 1,902 | 1.53 | 2,175 | 384 | 1,791 | 477 | 731 | 90 | 1,373 | 4,575 | 7,016 | 1,242 |
| 2021 | 10,876 | 3,402 | 2,105 | 1,591 | 1.28 | 1,540 | 360 | 1,180 | 347 | 662 | 83 | 1,197 | 4,796 | 6,302 | 1,242 |
| 2020 | 8,599 | 2,664 | 1,638 | 1,203 | 0.99 | 1,592 | 277 | 1,315 | 298 | 641 | 71 | 1,702 | 3,636 | 5,385 | 1,221 |
| 2019 | 8,225 | 2,616 | 1,619 | 1,155 | 0.95 | 1,502 | 295 | 1,207 | 280 | 602 | 63 | 891 | 3,203 | 4,530 | 1,223 |
| 2018 | 8,202 | 2,655 | 1,687 | 1,205 | 0.98 | 1,113 | 311 | 802 | 254 | 935 | 56 | 1,279 | 2,806 | 4,017 | 1,223 |
| 2017 | 7,011 | 2,310 | 1,428 | 651 | 0.53 | 1,144 | 227 | 918 | 205 | 618 | 50 | 1,719 | 3,542 | 3,990 | 1,238 |
| 2016 | 6,286 | 2,040 | 1,205 | 823 | 0.67 | 1,078 | 191 | 887 | 173 | 326 | 48 | 1,035 | 2,636 | 3,675 | 1,233 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.