APD
Air Products · Materials · Industrial Gases
$306.24
52w 229.11 – 314.87
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$68.2B
P/E
—
P/FCF
—
FCF yield
-5.5%
ROE
-2.6%
Shldr yield
2.3%
div 2.3% + bb 0.0%
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 10.5× across 19 years, APD would trade near $153/share (25th–75th percentile: $117–$236); it trades at 20.9× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−1.8%
Rev 5y
+6.3%
Rev 10y
+4.4%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
—
FCF 5y
—
FCF 10y
—
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $3.2B | +4.6% | −$1.4B | −301.8% | -6.47 | $1.3B |
| Q2'26 | $3.2B | +8.8% | $710.4M | — | 3.19 | $1.1B |
| Q1'26 | $3.1B | +5.8% | $678.2M | +9.8% | 3.04 | $900.7M |
| Q4'25 * | $3.2B | −0.6% | $4.9M | −99.7% | 0.03 | $1.3B |
| Q3'25 | $3.0B | +1.2% | $713.8M | +2.5% | 3.20 | $855.8M |
| Q2'25 | $2.9B | −0.5% | −$1.7B | −402.3% | -7.77 | $328.1M |
| Q1'25 | $2.9B | −2.2% | $617.4M | +1.3% | 2.77 | $811.7M |
| Q4'24 * | $3.2B | −0.1% | $1.9B | +181.5% | 8.75 | $957.0M |
| Q3'24 | $3.0B | −1.6% | $696.6M | +17.0% | 3.13 | $1.3B |
| Q2'24 | $2.9B | −8.4% | $572.4M | +30.2% | 2.57 | $801.7M |
| Q1'24 | $3.0B | −5.6% | $609.3M | +6.5% | 2.73 | $626.6M |
| Q4'23 * | $3.2B | −10.6% | $692.6M | +18.8% | 3.12 | $1.0B |
| Q3'23 | $3.0B | −4.9% | $595.6M | +2.3% | 2.67 | $845.4M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −1.8% | +6.3% | +4.4% | +2.3% |
| Operating cash flow | +0.9% | −0.0% | +4.8% | +5.2% |
| Free cash flow | −37.1% | −30.3% | 0.0% | −4.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | +22.1% | +16.7% | +14.1% | +12.4% |
| Equity | +4.6% | +4.5% | +7.6% | +6.9% |
| LT debt | +40.0% | +19.9% | +16.2% | +11.1% |
| Diluted shares | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.2% | +0.2% |
| Stock price | +3.8% | +5.2% | +10.5% | +12.6% |
$100, 3 years ago
$112vs $176 in SPY
3.8% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$129vs $181 in SPY
5.2% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$272vs $412 in SPY
10.5% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$590vs $813 in SPY
12.6% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$-0.12
−$344.1M created / $2.8B retained
Last 10 years
$4.45
$31.5B created / $7.1B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
10.0%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.9%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.09
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
—
SBC / FCF
—
Owner earnings
−$3.8B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
-5.7%
Share count 5y
−0.0%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
210.5%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$4.20
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 101.6% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -0.0% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -0.0% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
7 of 18 checks pass · 39%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
2/5
- pass
Revenue growth
6.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
FCF growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
4 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- fail
FCF consistently positive
7 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-0.0% vs 6.3% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
1/6
- fail
Net margin
-3.3% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
-7.3% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
-2.6% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
10.0% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
-31.3% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $3.3B vs NI −$394.5M · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/3
- na
Debt payable from cash flow
— · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
11% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
1.18 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$15.0B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
-24% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
1/2
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-0.0% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- na
Stock comp restrained
— · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- na
Distributions funded by FCF
— · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
0 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/2
- fail
FCF yield
-5.5% · ≥ 3%
- na
Earnings multiple
— · P/E ≤ 25
- na
Price asks less than history delivered
— · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.3% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Negative free cash flow
Operating cash flow did not cover capital expenditures in the latest fiscal year.
Net loss
The company reported a net loss in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12,037 | — | -877 | -395 | -1.77 | 3,257 | 7,023 | -3,766 | 1,584 | — | 76 | 1,856 | 17,664 | 15,025 | 223 |
| 2024 | 12,101 | — | 4,466 | 3,828 | 17.18 | 3,647 | 6,797 | -3,150 | 1,565 | — | 62 | 2,980 | 14,144 | 17,037 | 223 |
| 2023 | 12,600 | — | 2,495 | 2,300 | 10.33 | 3,206 | 4,626 | -1,421 | 1,497 | — | 60 | 1,617 | 10,046 | 14,313 | 223 |
| 2022 | 12,699 | — | 2,339 | 2,256 | 10.14 | 3,171 | 2,927 | 244 | 1,383 | — | 48 | 2,711 | 6,434 | 13,144 | 223 |
| 2021 | 10,323 | — | 2,281 | 2,099 | 9.43 | 3,335 | 2,464 | 871 | 1,257 | — | 45 | 4,469 | 6,876 | 13,540 | 223 |
| 2020 | 8,856 | 2,998 | 2,238 | 1,887 | 8.49 | 3,265 | 2,509 | 756 | 1,104 | — | 54 | 5,253 | 7,133 | 12,080 | 222 |
| 2019 | 8,919 | 2,914 | 2,144 | 1,760 | 7.94 | 2,970 | 1,990 | 980 | 994 | — | 41 | 2,249 | 2,907 | 11,054 | 222 |
| 2018 | 8,930 | 2,741 | 1,966 | 1,498 | 6.78 | 2,547 | 1,568 | 979 | 898 | — | 39 | 2,791 | 2,967 | 10,858 | 221 |
| 2017 | 8,188 | 2,436 | 1,440 | 3,000 | 13.65 | 2,528 | 1,040 | 1,489 | 788 | — | 40 | 3,274 | 3,402 | 10,086 | 220 |
| 2016 | 7,504 | 2,327 | 1,535 | 631 | 2.89 | 2,259 | 908 | 1,351 | 721 | — | 31 | 1,293 | 4,918 | 7,080 | 218 |
| 2015 | 7,824 | 2,956 | 1,233 | 1,278 | 5.88 | 2,047 | 1,162 | 885 | 678 | 0 | 40 | 183 | 3,949 | 7,249 | 217 |
| 2014 | 10,439 | 2,804 | 1,339 | 992 | 4.61 | 2,190 | 1,363 | 827 | 628 | 0 | 44 | 337 | 4,825 | 7,366 | 215 |
| 2013 | 10,180 | 2,708 | 1,324 | 994 | 4.68 | 1,553 | 1,524 | 29 | 566 | 462 | 44 | 450 | 5,056 | 7,042 | 212 |
| 2012 | 9,612 | 2,560 | 1,282 | 1,167 | 5.44 | 1,765 | 1,521 | 244 | 515 | 53 | 44 | 454 | 4,584 | 6,477 | 215 |
| 2011 | 9,674 | 2,575 | 1,508 | 1,224 | 5.63 | 1,753 | 1,309 | 444 | 457 | 649 | 45 | 421 | 3,928 | 5,796 | 218 |
| 2010 | 8,616 | 2,523 | 1,268 | 1,029 | 4.74 | 1,522 | 989 | 534 | 399 | 0 | 49 | 374 | 3,660 | 5,547 | 217 |
| 2009 | 8,256 | 2,214 | 846 | 631 | 2.96 | 1,329 | 1,179 | 150 | 373 | 0 | 60 | 488 | 3,716 | 4,792 | 214 |
| 2008 | 10,415 | — | 1,496 | 910 | 4.15 | 1,659 | 1,085 | 574 | 349 | 793 | 61 | 104 | 3,515 | 5,031 | 219 |
| 2007 | 9,148 | — | 1,376 | 1,036 | 4.64 | 1,500 | 1,013 | 487 | 312 | 575 | 71 | 41 | — | 5,496 | 223 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.