MMarketMath

AON

StalwartQuality: High (80/100)

Aon plc · Financials · Insurance Brokers

$359.10

52w 304.59 – 382.34

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$76.2B

P/E

20.4

P/FCF

23.4

FCF yield

4.3%

ROE

39.5%

Shldr yield

0.8%

div 0.8% + bb 0.0%

What today's price assumes

At $76.2B, the market is pricing in 9.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 5.9% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $231 · $266 · $332 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 16.3× across 19 years, AON would trade near $268/share (25th–75th percentile: $204–$355); it trades at 21.9× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+11.2%

Rev 5y

+9.2%

Rev 10y

+6.1%

EPS 5y

+15.0%

EPS 10y

+13.3%

FCF 5y

+4.0%

FCF 10y

+5.9%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $7.2B
2008: $7.5B
2009: $7.6B
2010: $8.5B
2011: $11.3B
2012: $11.5B
2013: $11.8B
2014: $12.0B
2015: $9.5B
2016: $9.4B
2017: $10.0B
2018: $10.8B
2019: $11.0B
2020: $11.1B
2021: $12.2B
2022: $12.5B
2023: $13.4B
2024: $15.7B
2025: $17.2B
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $864.0M
2008: $1.5B
2009: $747.0M
2010: $706.0M
2011: $1.0B
2012: $1.0B
2013: $1.1B
2014: $1.4B
2015: $1.4B
2016: $1.4B
2017: $1.3B
2018: $1.2B
2019: $1.5B
2020: $2.0B
2021: $1.3B
2022: $2.6B
2023: $2.6B
2024: $2.7B
2025: $3.7B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $1.1B
2008: $865.0M
2009: $360.0M
2010: $603.0M
2011: $777.0M
2012: $1.1B
2013: $1.5B
2014: $1.6B
2015: $1.8B
2016: $2.2B
2017: $551.0M
2018: $1.4B
2019: $1.6B
2020: $2.6B
2021: $2.0B
2022: $3.0B
2023: $3.2B
2024: $2.8B
2025: $3.2B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 326.9M
2008: 304.5M
2009: 291.1M
2010: 298.1M
2011: 340.9M
2012: 332.6M
2013: 315.4M
2014: 299.6M
2015: 283.8M
2016: 270.3M
2017: 260.7M
2018: 247.0M
2019: 240.6M
2020: 233.1M
2021: 226.1M
2022: 213.2M
2023: 205.0M
2024: 212.5M
2025: 217.1M
0100.0M200.0M300.0M
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

10%20%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $176.0M
2008: $2.1B
2009: $755.0M
2010: $425.0M
2011: $1.0B
2012: $1.3B
2013: $1.3B
2014: $2.5B
2015: $1.9B
2016: $1.6B
2017: $2.8B
2018: $382.0M
2019: $410.0M
2020: $412.0M
2021: $447.0M
2022: $463.0M
2023: $489.0M
2024: $562.0M
2025: $629.0M
$0$1.0B$2.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $3.2B
Q3'23: $3.0B
Q4'23: $3.4B
Q1'24: $4.1B
Q2'24: $3.8B
Q3'24: $3.7B
Q4'24: $4.1B
Q1'25: $4.7B
Q2'25: $4.2B
Q3'25: $4.0B
Q4'25: $4.3B
Q1'26: $5.0B
Q2'26: $4.2B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $560.0M
Q3'23: $456.0M
Q4'23: $498.0M
Q1'24: $1.1B
Q2'24: $524.0M
Q3'24: $343.0M
Q4'24: $716.0M
Q1'25: $965.0M
Q2'25: $579.0M
Q3'25: $458.0M
Q4'25: $1.7B
Q1'26: $1.2B
Q2'26: $551.0M
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$4.2B+2.2%$551.0M−4.8%2.58$556.0M
Q1'26$5.0B+6.4%$1.2B+25.6%5.63$430.0M
Q4'25 *$4.3B+3.7%$1.7B+136.5%7.82$1.4B
Q3'25$4.0B+7.4%$458.0M+33.5%2.11$1.1B
Q2'25$4.2B+10.5%$579.0M+10.5%2.66$796.0M
Q1'25$4.7B+16.2%$965.0M−9.9%4.43$140.0M
Q4'24 *$4.1B+22.9%$716.0M+43.8%3.11$1.2B
Q3'24$3.7B+26.0%$343.0M−24.8%1.57$1.0B
Q2'24$3.8B+18.4%$524.0M−6.4%2.46$513.0M
Q1'24$4.1B+5.1%$1.1B+2.0%5.35$309.0M
Q4'23 *$3.4B+7.8%$498.0M−24.2%2.50$1.3B
Q3'23$3.0B+9.5%$456.0M+11.8%2.23$1.0B
Q2'23$3.2B+6.5%$560.0M+11.8%2.71$688.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+11.2%+9.2%+6.1%+4.8%
Operating cash flow+2.6%+4.6%+5.7%+10.5%
Free cash flow+2.1%+4.0%+5.9%+11.8%
EPS (diluted)+11.9%+15.0%+13.3%+14.0%
Equity+72.3%+21.8%+4.5%+0.8%
LT debt+14.3%+15.0%+11.1%+9.0%
Diluted shares+0.6%−1.4%−2.6%−2.1%
Stock price+3.2%+5.3%+13.4%+15.7%

$100, 3 years ago

$110vs $176 in SPY

3.2% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$130vs $181 in SPY

5.3% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$352vs $412 in SPY

13.4% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$890vs $813 in SPY

15.7% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$2.96

$30.0B created / $10.2B retained

Last 10 years

$3.38

$52.9B created / $15.6B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

14.5%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

3.9%

MC vs 10× OCF

2.16

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

4.6y

SBC / FCF

13.4%

Owner earnings

$2.8B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

3.7%

Share count 5y

−2.2%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

4.1%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.02

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 84.2% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 5.4% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 4.5% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

16 of 26 checks pass · 62%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

5/7

  • Revenue growth

    9.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    15.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • FCF growth

    4.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • Revenue rises consistently

    9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    4.6% vs 9.2% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

5/6

  • Net margin

    21.5% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    25.3% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    39.5% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • Cash ROIC

    14.5% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    18.7% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $3.5B vs NI $3.7B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    fail

Balance Sheet

1/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    4.6y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail

  • Cash cushion

    8% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    1.57 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    fail

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $9.4B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    19% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    fail

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -2.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    13% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    20% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    2 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    fail

Valuation Discipline

2/4

  • FCF yield

    4.3% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    20.4 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    9.9% vs 5.9% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail

  • Shareholder yield

    0.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202517,181—4,3443,69517.023,4812633,218629—4321,19514,6609,352217
202415,698—3,8352,65412.493,0352182,817562—4741,08516,2656,121213
202313,376—3,7852,56412.513,4352523,183489—4387789,995-826205
202212,479—3,6692,58912.143,2191963,023463—3976909,825-529213
202112,193—2,0901,2555.552,1821372,045447—4495448,2281,061226
202011,066—2,7811,9698.452,7831412,642412—3128847,2813,495233
201911,013—2,1691,5326.371,8352251,610410—3177906,6273,375241
201810,770—1,5441,1744.591,6862401,446382—3386565,9934,151247
20179,998—1,0651,2634.707341835513642,3993197565,6674,583261
20169,409—1,8111,4305.162,3261562,1703451,2573064265,8695,475270
20159,480—1,5871,4224.882,0092001,8093231,5503203845,1386,002284
201412,045—1,9661,4314.661,8122561,5562732,2503283744,7996,571300
201311,815—1,6711,1483.531,7532291,5242121,1023004773,6868,145315
201211,514—1,5961,0202.991,4192691,1502041,1252122913,7137,762333
201111,287—1,5961,0102.871,0182417772008282352724,1558,078341
20108,512—1,2447062.377831806031752502213464,0148,251298
20097,595—1,0217472.575001403601655902092171,9985,379291
20087,528—9401,4624.809681038651711,9242485821,8725,310305
20077,234—1,0038642.661,2631701,093176—204584—6,261327

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗