MMarketMath

ANET

Fast growerQuality: High (90/100)1 red flag

Arista Networks · Information Technology · Communications Equipment

$188.15

52w 114.52 – 214.89

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$237.3B

P/E

67.8

P/FCF

56.0

FCF yield

1.8%

ROE

28.4%

Shldr yield

0.7%

div 0.0% + bb 0.7%

What today's price assumes

At $237.3B, the market is pricing in 21.8% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 34.6% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $51 · $115 · $166 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 36.5× across 12 years, ANET would trade near $126/share (25th–75th percentile: $108–$138); it trades at 54.3× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+27.1%

Rev 5y

+31.2%

Rev 10y

+26.8%

EPS 5y

+40.4%

EPS 10y

+38.6%

FCF 5y

+42.7%

FCF 10y

+34.6%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2012–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2012: $193.4M
2013: $361.2M
2014: $584.1M
2015: $837.6M
2016: $1.1B
2017: $1.6B
2018: $2.2B
2019: $2.4B
2020: $2.3B
2021: $2.9B
2022: $4.4B
2023: $5.9B
2024: $7.0B
2025: $9.0B
$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B
12
15
18
21
24

Net income

2012: $21.3M
2013: $42.5M
2014: $86.8M
2015: $121.1M
2016: $184.2M
2017: $423.2M
2018: $328.1M
2019: $859.9M
2020: $634.6M
2021: $840.9M
2022: $1.4B
2023: $2.1B
2024: $2.9B
2025: $3.5B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
12
15
18
21
24

Free cash flow

2012: $23.0M
2013: $14.3M
2014: $118.7M
2015: $217.8M
2016: $152.9M
2017: $616.3M
2018: $479.3M
2019: $947.3M
2020: $719.7M
2021: $951.1M
2022: $448.2M
2023: $2.0B
2024: $3.7B
2025: $4.3B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
12
15
18
21
24

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2012: 717.8M
2013: 866.2M
2014: 866.2M
2015: 1.1B
2016: 1.2B
2017: 1.3B
2018: 1.3B
2019: 1.3B
2020: 1.3B
2021: 1.3B
2022: 1.3B
2023: 1.3B
2024: 1.3B
2025: 1.3B
0500.0M1.0B
12
15
18
21
24

Margins

0%20%40%60%12141618202224
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2017: $0
2018: $0
2019: $266.1M
2020: $395.2M
2021: $411.6M
2022: $670.3M
2023: $112.3M
2024: $423.6M
2025: $1.6B
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
12
15
18
21
24

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$1.0B$2.0B12141618202224
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $1.5B
Q3'23: $1.5B
Q4'23: $1.5B
Q1'24: $1.6B
Q2'24: $1.7B
Q3'24: $1.8B
Q4'24: $1.9B
Q1'25: $2.0B
Q2'25: $2.2B
Q3'25: $2.3B
Q4'25: $2.5B
Q1'26: $2.7B
Q2'26: $3.0B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $491.9M
Q3'23: $545.3M
Q4'23: $613.6M
Q1'24: $637.7M
Q2'24: $665.4M
Q3'24: $748.0M
Q4'24: $801.0M
Q1'25: $813.8M
Q2'25: $888.8M
Q3'25: $853.0M
Q4'25: $955.8M
Q1'26: $1.0B
Q2'26: $1.2B
$0$500.0M$1.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$3.0B+37.7%$1.2B+36.5%0.95$1.1B
Q1'26$2.7B+35.1%$1.0B+25.7%0.80$1.7B
Q4'25 *$2.5B+28.9%$955.8M+19.3%0.74$1.3B
Q3'25$2.3B+27.5%$853.0M+14.0%0.67$1.3B
Q2'25$2.2B+30.4%$888.8M+33.6%0.70$1.2B
Q1'25$2.0B+27.6%$813.8M+27.6%0.64$641.7M
Q4'24 *$1.9B+25.3%$801.0M+30.5%0.63$1.0B
Q3'24$1.8B+20.0%$748.0M+37.2%0.58$1.2B
Q2'24$1.7B+15.9%$665.4M+35.3%0.52$989.0M
Q1'24$1.6B+16.3%$637.7M+46.1%0.50$513.8M
Q4'23 *$1.5B+20.8%$613.6M+43.7%-3.00$526.5M
Q3'23$1.5B+28.3%$545.3M+54.0%1.72$699.0M
Q2'23$1.5B+38.7%$491.9M+64.5%1.55$434.1M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+27.1%+31.2%+26.8%
Operating cash flow+107.0%+42.8%+33.8%
Free cash flow+111.7%+42.7%+34.6%
EPS (diluted)+37.0%+40.4%+38.6%
Equity+36.3%+30.1%+31.7%
LT debt
Diluted shares+0.3%+0.2%+1.2%
Stock price+56.8%+52.1%+43.8%

$100, 3 years ago

$385vs $176 in SPY

56.8% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$815vs $181 in SPY

52.1% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$3,778vs $412 in SPY

43.8% vs 15.2%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$14.71

$156.6B created / $10.6B retained

Last 10 years

$13.51

$176.6B created / $13.1B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

35.3%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

1.9%

MC vs 10× OCF

5.44

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

SBC / FCF

10.3%

Owner earnings

$3.8B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

1.6%

Share count 5y

+4.5%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

2.3%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.03

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 68.7% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 45.6% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 31.3% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

22 of 26 checks pass · 85%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

7/7

  • Revenue growth

    31.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    40.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    42.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Revenue rises consistently

    8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    42.8% vs 31.2% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

7/7

  • Net margin

    39.0% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    42.8% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    64.1% vs 61.1% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass
  • Return on equity

    28.4% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    35.3% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    47.2% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $4.4B vs NI $3.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    no debt · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $12.4B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    4.5% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail
  • Stock comp restrained

    10% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    38% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    7 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

1/4

  • FCF yield

    1.8% · ≥ 3%

    fail
  • Earnings multiple

    67.8 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    21.8% vs 34.6% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass
  • Shareholder yield

    0.7% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Shareholder dilution

Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
20259,0065,7693,8563,5112.754,3721204,2521,6034391,96412,3711,276
20247,0034,4912,9452,8522.233,708323,6764243552,7629,9951,281
20235,8603,6302,2572,0871.652,034342,0001122971,9397,2191,269
20224,3812,6761,5271,3521.07493454486702316724,8861,266
20212,9481,8819258410.661,016659514121876213,9791,266
20202,3181,4827006350.50735157203951378933,3201,260
20192,4111,5448068600.67963169472661011,1112,8951,283
20182,1511,3732733280.26503244790916502,1431,283
20171,6461,0624704230.34632156160758591,6621,253
20161,1297232431840.1617421153595681,1081,162
20158385441491210.1123820218456877881,133
2014584392126870.081321311928240556866
201336123966420.0235201410114078866
201219313240210.012632358919718

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.