AMZN
Amazon · Consumer Discretionary · Broadline Retail
$262.07
52w 196.00 – 287.20
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$2.83T
P/E
35.9
P/FCF
362.5
FCF yield
0.3%
ROE
18.9%
Shldr yield
0.0%
div 0.0% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $2.83T, the market is pricing in 49.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 0.3% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $8 · $8 · $10 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 23.5× across 19 years, AMZN would trade near $304/share (25th–75th percentile: $287–$355); it trades at 20.3× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+11.7%
Rev 5y
+13.2%
Rev 10y
+21.0%
EPS 5y
+28.0%
EPS 10y
+60.9%
FCF 5y
−21.6%
FCF 10y
+0.3%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $200.6B | +19.6% | $62.6B | +244.9% | 5.75 | $45.4B |
| Q1'26 | $181.5B | +16.6% | $30.3B | +76.7% | 2.78 | $26.0B |
| Q4'25 * | $213.4B | +13.6% | $21.2B | +5.9% | 1.95 | $54.5B |
| Q3'25 | $180.2B | +13.4% | $21.2B | +38.2% | 1.95 | $35.5B |
| Q2'25 | $167.7B | +13.3% | $18.2B | +34.7% | 1.68 | $32.5B |
| Q1'25 | $155.7B | +8.6% | $17.1B | +64.2% | 1.59 | $17.0B |
| Q4'24 * | $187.8B | +10.5% | $20.0B | +88.3% | 1.86 | $45.6B |
| Q3'24 | $158.9B | +11.0% | $15.3B | +55.2% | 1.43 | $26.0B |
| Q2'24 | $148.0B | +10.1% | $13.5B | +99.8% | 1.26 | $25.3B |
| Q1'24 | $143.3B | +12.5% | $10.4B | +228.8% | 0.98 | $19.0B |
| Q4'23 * | $170.0B | +13.9% | $10.6B | +3721.6% | 1.00 | $42.5B |
| Q3'23 | $143.1B | +12.6% | $9.9B | +244.0% | 0.94 | $21.2B |
| Q2'23 | $134.4B | +10.8% | $6.8B | — | 0.65 | $16.5B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +11.7% | +13.2% | +21.0% | +22.5% |
| Operating cash flow | +44.0% | +16.1% | +27.8% | +27.9% |
| Free cash flow | −21.6% | −21.6% | +0.3% | +7.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | +22.0% | +28.0% | +60.9% | +31.0% |
| Equity | +41.2% | +34.5% | +40.8% | +31.4% |
| LT debt | −0.8% | +15.6% | +23.1% | +48.0% |
| Diluted shares | +2.0% | +1.2% | +1.2% | +1.1% |
| Stock price | +23.8% | +8.6% | +21.2% | +23.7% |
$100, 3 years ago
$190vs $176 in SPY
23.8% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$151vs $181 in SPY
8.6% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$681vs $412 in SPY
21.2% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$2,435vs $813 in SPY
23.7% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$4.83
$956.1B created / $198.0B retained
Last 10 years
$9.37
$2.31T created / $246.4B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
29.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
5.0%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.00
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
8.5y
SBC / FCF
253.0%
Owner earnings
−$11.8B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
-0.4%
Share count 5y
+1.3%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
49.8%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.65
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 70.8% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 23.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 16.9% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
16 of 26 checks pass · 62%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
13.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
28.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-21.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
8 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
16.1% vs 13.2% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/6
- pass
Net margin
10.8% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
11.2% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
18.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
29.3% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
1.1% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $139.5B vs NI $77.7B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
8.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
132% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.16 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$411.1B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
3% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
1/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
1.3% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
253% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
0% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
1 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
0.3% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
35.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
49.1% vs 0.3% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Heavy stock compensation
Stock-based compensation consumes more than 30% of free cash flow.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 716,924 | — | 79,975 | 77,670 | 7.17 | 139,514 | 131,819 | 7,695 | — | — | 19,467 | 86,810 | 65,648 | 411,065 | 10,827 |
| 2024 | 637,959 | — | 68,593 | 59,248 | 5.53 | 115,877 | 82,999 | 32,878 | — | 0 | 22,011 | 78,779 | 52,623 | 285,970 | 10,721 |
| 2023 | 574,785 | — | 36,852 | 30,425 | 2.90 | 84,946 | 52,729 | 32,217 | — | 0 | 24,023 | 73,387 | 58,314 | 201,875 | 10,492 |
| 2022 | 513,983 | — | 12,248 | -2,722 | -0.27 | 46,752 | 63,645 | -16,893 | — | 6,000 | 19,621 | 53,888 | 67,150 | 146,043 | 10,189 |
| 2021 | 469,822 | — | 24,879 | 33,364 | 3.24 | 46,327 | 61,053 | -14,726 | — | 0 | 12,757 | 36,220 | 48,744 | 138,245 | 10,296 |
| 2020 | 386,064 | — | 22,899 | 21,331 | 2.09 | 66,064 | 40,140 | 25,924 | — | 0 | 9,208 | 42,122 | 31,816 | 93,404 | 10,198 |
| 2019 | 280,522 | — | 14,541 | 11,588 | 1.14 | 38,514 | 16,861 | 21,653 | — | — | 6,864 | 36,092 | 23,414 | 62,060 | 10,198 |
| 2018 | 232,887 | — | 12,421 | 10,073 | 1.00 | 30,723 | 13,427 | 17,296 | — | — | 5,418 | 31,750 | 23,495 | 43,549 | 10,117 |
| 2017 | 177,866 | — | 4,106 | 3,033 | 0.30 | 18,365 | 11,955 | 6,410 | — | — | 4,215 | 20,522 | 24,743 | 27,709 | 9,975 |
| 2016 | 135,987 | — | 4,186 | 2,371 | 0.24 | 17,203 | 6,737 | 10,466 | — | — | 2,975 | 19,334 | 7,694 | 19,285 | 9,793 |
| 2015 | 107,006 | — | 2,233 | 596 | 0.06 | 12,039 | 4,589 | 7,450 | — | — | 2,119 | 15,890 | 8,227 | 13,384 | 9,652 |
| 2014 | 88,988 | — | 178 | -241 | -0.03 | 6,842 | 4,893 | 1,949 | — | 0 | 1,497 | 14,557 | 8,265 | 10,741 | 9,348 |
| 2013 | 74,452 | — | 745 | 274 | 0.03 | 5,475 | 3,444 | 2,031 | — | 0 | 1,134 | 8,658 | 3,191 | 9,746 | 9,409 |
| 2012 | 61,093 | — | 676 | -39 | -0.00 | 4,180 | 3,785 | 395 | — | 960 | 833 | 8,084 | 3,084 | 8,192 | 9,166 |
| 2011 | 48,077 | — | 862 | 631 | 0.07 | 3,903 | 1,811 | 2,092 | — | 277 | 557 | 5,269 | 255 | 7,757 | 9,328 |
| 2010 | 34,204 | — | 1,406 | 1,152 | 0.13 | 3,495 | 979 | 2,516 | — | — | 424 | 3,777 | 184 | 6,864 | 9,227 |
| 2009 | 24,509 | 5,531 | 1,129 | 902 | 0.10 | 3,293 | 373 | 2,920 | — | 0 | 341 | 3,444 | 109 | 5,257 | 8,943 |
| 2008 | 19,166 | 4,270 | 842 | 645 | 0.07 | 1,697 | 333 | 1,364 | — | 100 | 275 | 2,769 | 409 | 2,672 | 8,741 |
| 2007 | 14,835 | 3,353 | 655 | 476 | 0.06 | 1,405 | 224 | 1,181 | — | 248 | 185 | 2,539 | — | 1,197 | 8,579 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.