AMT
American Tower · Real Estate · Telecom Tower REITs
$178.39
52w 160.06 – 211.92
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$83.1B
P/E
31.2
P/FCF
21.6
FCF yield
4.6%
ROE
72.0%
Shldr yield
4.3%
div 3.9% + bb 0.4%
What today's price assumes
At $83.1B, the market is pricing in 8.8% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 10.2% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $124 · $194 · $242 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 15.7× across 19 years, AMT would trade near $184/share (25th–75th percentile: $171–$206); it trades at 15.2× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+3.6%
Rev 5y
+13.6%
Rev 10y
−15.0%
EPS 5y
+7.3%
EPS 10y
+14.4%
FCF 5y
+5.8%
FCF 10y
+10.2%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $216.1M | −4.4% | $878.5M | +76.2% | 1.84 | $1.4B |
| Q4'25 * | $219.8M | −91.4% | $836.8M | −31.9% | 1.76 | $1.4B |
| Q3'25 | $246.4M | +29.4% | $912.6M | — | 1.82 | $1.5B |
| Q2'25 | $243.7M | +24.1% | $380.5M | −58.1% | 0.78 | $1.3B |
| Q1'25 | $226.0M | +30.6% | $498.6M | −45.9% | 1.04 | $1.3B |
| Q4'24 | $2.5B | +3.7% | $1.2B | +1348.3% | 2.62 | $1.2B |
| Q3'24 | $190.4M | +2.5% | −$780.4M | −235.2% | -1.69 | $1.5B |
| Q2'24 | $196.4M | +0.1% | $908.4M | +96.8% | 1.92 | $1.3B |
| Q1'24 | $173.0M | −15.9% | $921.7M | +192.6% | 1.96 | $1.3B |
| Q4'23 | $2.5B | +1167.3% | $84.9M | — | 0.18 | $1.1B |
| Q3'23 | $185.7M | −15.8% | $577.3M | −31.2% | 1.26 | $1.3B |
| Q2'23 | $196.2M | −9.6% | $461.5M | −48.6% | 1.02 | $1.2B |
| Q1'23 | $205.7M | −1.7% | $315.0M | −55.7% | 0.72 | $1.1B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +3.6% | +13.6% | −15.0% | −4.9% |
| Operating cash flow | +13.9% | +7.1% | +9.7% | +11.8% |
| Free cash flow | +27.6% | +5.8% | +10.2% | +12.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | +12.2% | +7.3% | +14.4% | +12.5% |
| Equity | −13.1% | −2.3% | −5.8% | +0.3% |
| LT debt | −4.5% | +3.5% | +7.1% | +12.9% |
| Diluted shares | +0.4% | +1.0% | +1.0% | +1.0% |
| Stock price | +3.0% | −6.5% | +7.3% | +10.7% |
$100, 3 years ago
$109vs $176 in SPY
3.0% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$71vs $181 in SPY
-6.5% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$203vs $412 in SPY
7.3% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$462vs $813 in SPY
10.7% vs 15.0%/yr
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
14.6%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.8%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.50
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
8.9y
SBC / FCF
4.6%
Owner earnings
$3.6B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
4.4%
Share count 5y
+0.5%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
—
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 21.5% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 30.6% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 6.6% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
17 of 26 checks pass · 65%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/7
- pass
Revenue growth
13.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
7.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
5.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
7.1% vs 13.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
280.9% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
517.8% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
72.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
14.6% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
404.3% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $5.5B vs NI $2.6B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
0/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
8.9y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
4% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
9.26 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
$3.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
28% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
0.5% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
5% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
94% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
6 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
4.6% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
31.2 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
8.8% vs 10.2% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
4.3% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 936 | — | 4,846 | 2,629 | 5.40 | 5,464 | 1,680 | 3,784 | 3,181 | 365 | 174 | 1,475 | 33,833 | 3,653 | 469 |
| 2024 | 775 | — | 4,517 | 2,280 | 4.82 | 5,291 | 1,590 | 3,701 | 3,027 | 0 | 204 | 2,000 | 32,809 | 3,382 | 468 |
| 2023 | 747 | — | 3,126 | 1,367 | 3.18 | 4,722 | 1,798 | 2,924 | 3,007 | 0 | 196 | 1,754 | 35,734 | 4,198 | 467 |
| 2022 | 841 | — | 2,739 | 1,697 | 3.82 | 3,696 | 1,874 | 1,823 | 2,715 | 19 | 169 | 1,549 | 38,902 | 5,572 | 463 |
| 2021 | 717 | — | 3,132 | 2,568 | 5.66 | 4,820 | 1,377 | 3,443 | 2,271 | 0 | 120 | 1,950 | 43,498 | 5,081 | 453 |
| 2020 | 496 | — | 2,888 | 1,691 | 3.79 | 3,881 | 1,032 | 2,850 | 1,928 | 56 | 121 | 1,746 | 28,498 | 4,094 | 446 |
| 2019 | 527 | — | 2,688 | 1,888 | 4.24 | 3,753 | 991 | 2,761 | 1,603 | 20 | 111 | 1,501 | 2 | 5,055 | 446 |
| 2018 | 491 | — | 1,905 | 1,236 | 2.77 | 3,748 | 913 | 2,835 | 1,324 | 233 | 138 | 1,209 | 18,405 | 5,336 | 443 |
| 2017 | 6,664 | — | 1,998 | 1,239 | 2.67 | 2,926 | 804 | 2,122 | 1,073 | 766 | 109 | 802 | 19,430 | 6,242 | 432 |
| 2016 | 5,786 | — | 1,853 | 956 | 1.98 | 2,702 | 683 | 2,019 | 886 | 0 | 90 | 787 | 18,295 | 6,764 | 429 |
| 2015 | 4,772 | — | 1,613 | 685 | 1.41 | 2,167 | 729 | 1,438 | 711 | 0 | 91 | 321 | 17,069 | 6,652 | 423 |
| 2014 | 4,100 | — | 1,487 | 825 | 2.00 | 2,135 | 974 | 1,160 | 405 | 0 | 80 | 313 | 13,643 | 3,954 | 400 |
| 2013 | 3,361 | — | 1,214 | 551 | 1.38 | 1,599 | 725 | 875 | 435 | 145 | 68 | 294 | 14,408 | 3,534 | 399 |
| 2012 | 2,876 | — | 1,120 | 637 | 1.60 | 1,414 | 568 | 846 | 356 | 63 | 52 | 369 | 8,693 | 3,573 | 399 |
| 2011 | 2,444 | — | 920 | 396 | 0.99 | 1,166 | 523 | 643 | 138 | 437 | 47 | 330 | 7,134 | 3,287 | 400 |
| 2010 | 1,985 | — | 784 | 373 | 0.92 | 1,021 | 347 | 674 | 0 | 431 | 53 | 884 | 5,512 | 3,501 | 404 |
| 2009 | 1,724 | — | 672 | 247 | 0.61 | 842 | 250 | 592 | 0 | 213 | 61 | 247 | 4,141 | 3,315 | 407 |
| 2008 | 1,594 | — | 607 | 347 | 0.84 | 773 | 243 | 530 | — | 715 | 55 | 143 | 4,331 | 2,991 | 418 |
| 2007 | 1,457 | — | 378 | 56 | 0.13 | 693 | 154 | 538 | — | 1,643 | 55 | 33 | — | 3,025 | 426 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.