MMarketMath

AMGN

StalwartQuality: Medium (67/100)1 red flag

Amgen · Health Care · Biotechnology

$443.84

52w 269.77 – 445.87

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$240.0B

P/E

31.0

P/FCF

29.5

FCF yield

3.4%

ROE

89.1%

Shldr yield

2.1%

div 2.1% + bb 0.0%

What today's price assumes

At $240.0B, the market is pricing in 13.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew -1.2% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $157 · $157 · $195 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 9.4× across 19 years, AMGN would trade near $173/share (25th–75th percentile: $148–$221); it trades at 24.1× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+11.8%

Rev 5y

+7.6%

Rev 10y

+5.4%

EPS 5y

+2.9%

EPS 10y

+4.6%

FCF 5y

−3.9%

FCF 10y

−1.2%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $14.8B
2008: $15.0B
2009: $14.6B
2010: $15.1B
2011: $15.6B
2012: $17.3B
2013: $18.7B
2014: $20.1B
2015: $21.7B
2016: $23.0B
2017: $22.8B
2018: $23.7B
2019: $23.4B
2020: $25.4B
2021: $26.0B
2022: $26.3B
2023: $28.2B
2024: $33.4B
2025: $36.8B
$0$10.0B$20.0B$30.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $3.1B
2008: $4.1B
2009: $4.6B
2010: $4.6B
2011: $3.7B
2012: $4.3B
2013: $5.1B
2014: $5.2B
2015: $6.9B
2016: $7.7B
2017: $2.0B
2018: $8.4B
2019: $7.8B
2020: $7.3B
2021: $5.9B
2022: $6.6B
2023: $6.7B
2024: $4.1B
2025: $7.7B
$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $4.1B
2008: $5.3B
2009: $5.8B
2010: $5.2B
2011: $4.6B
2012: $5.2B
2013: $5.6B
2014: $8.2B
2015: $9.1B
2016: $9.6B
2017: $10.5B
2018: $10.6B
2019: $8.5B
2020: $9.9B
2021: $8.4B
2022: $8.8B
2023: $7.4B
2024: $10.4B
2025: $8.1B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 1.1B
2008: 1.1B
2009: 1.0B
2010: 965.0M
2011: 912.0M
2012: 787.0M
2013: 765.0M
2014: 770.0M
2015: 766.0M
2016: 754.0M
2017: 735.0M
2018: 665.0M
2019: 609.0M
2020: 590.0M
2021: 573.0M
2022: 541.0M
2023: 538.0M
2024: 541.0M
2025: 542.0M
0500.0M1.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

20%40%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $5.1B
2008: $2.3B
2009: $3.2B
2010: $3.8B
2011: $8.8B
2012: $5.7B
2013: $2.2B
2014: $2.0B
2015: $4.3B
2016: $6.0B
2017: $6.5B
2018: $21.3B
2019: $11.2B
2020: $7.2B
2021: $9.0B
2022: $10.6B
2023: $4.6B
2024: $5.0B
2025: $5.1B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$20.0B$40.0B$60.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $7.0B
Q3'23: $6.9B
Q4'23: $8.2B
Q1'24: $7.4B
Q2'24: $8.4B
Q3'24: $8.5B
Q4'24: $9.1B
Q1'25: $8.1B
Q2'25: $9.2B
Q3'25: $9.6B
Q4'25: $9.9B
Q1'26: $8.6B
Q2'26: $10.1B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $1.4B
Q3'23: $1.7B
Q4'23: $767.0M
Q1'24: −$113.0M
Q2'24: $746.0M
Q3'24: $2.8B
Q4'24: $627.0M
Q1'25: $1.7B
Q2'25: $1.4B
Q3'25: $3.2B
Q4'25: $1.3B
Q1'26: $1.8B
Q2'26: $2.4B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$10.1B+9.5%$2.4B+65.9%4.37$4.0B
Q1'26$8.6B+5.8%$1.8B+5.1%3.34$2.2B
Q4'25 *$9.9B+8.6%$1.3B+112.6%2.45$1.6B
Q3'25$9.6B+12.4%$3.2B+13.6%5.93$4.7B
Q2'25$9.2B+9.4%$1.4B+92.0%2.65$2.3B
Q1'25$8.1B+9.4%$1.7B—3.20$1.4B
Q4'24 *$9.1B+10.9%$627.0M−18.3%1.17$4.8B
Q3'24$8.5B+23.2%$2.8B+63.6%5.22$3.6B
Q2'24$8.4B+20.1%$746.0M−45.9%1.38$2.5B
Q1'24$7.4B+22.0%−$113.0M−104.0%-0.21$689.0M
Q4'23 *$8.2B+19.8%$767.0M−52.5%1.42$538.0M
Q3'23$6.9B+3.8%$1.7B−19.3%3.22$2.8B
Q2'23$7.0B+5.9%$1.4B+4.7%2.57$4.1B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+11.8%+7.6%+5.4%+6.1%
Operating cash flow+0.8%−1.0%+0.2%+3.7%
Free cash flow−2.7%−3.9%−1.2%+3.0%
EPS (diluted)+5.5%+2.9%+4.6%+7.5%
Equity+33.2%−1.6%−11.1%−6.6%
LT debt+10.2%+8.7%+5.5%+10.7%
Diluted shares+0.1%−1.7%−3.4%−3.8%
Stock price+23.5%+18.0%+13.3%+17.9%

$100, 3 years ago

$188vs $176 in SPY

23.5% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$229vs $181 in SPY

18.0% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$350vs $412 in SPY

13.3% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$1,187vs $813 in SPY

17.9% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$7.61

$62.7B created / $8.2B retained

Last 10 years

$3.99

$97.0B created / $24.3B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

17.0%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

3.6%

MC vs 10× OCF

2.40

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

6.2y

SBC / FCF

6.1%

Owner earnings

$7.6B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

3.2%

Share count 5y

−4.0%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

21.5%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.27

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 27.6% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -4.0% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -1.1% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

16 of 26 checks pass · 62%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

4/7

  • Revenue growth

    7.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    2.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • FCF growth

    -3.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • Revenue rises consistently

    7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    -1.0% vs 7.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

6/6

  • Net margin

    21.0% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    24.7% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    89.1% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • Cash ROIC

    17.0% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    22.0% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $10.0B vs NI $7.7B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

0/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    6.2y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail

  • Cash cushion

    18% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    5.78 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    fail

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $8.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    fail

  • Interest burden

    30% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    fail

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -4.0% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    6% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    63% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    8 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

2/4

  • FCF yield

    3.4% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    31.0 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    13.0% vs -1.2% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail

  • Shareholder yield

    2.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Heavy debt load

Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202536,751—9,0807,71114.239,9581,8588,1005,12404949,12950,0058,658542
202433,424—7,2584,0907.5611,4901,09610,3944,83220053011,97356,5495,877541
202328,190—7,8976,71712.498,4711,1127,3594,556043110,94463,1706,232538
202226,323—9,5666,55212.119,7219368,7854,1966,3604017,62937,3543,661541
202125,979—7,6395,89310.289,2618808,3814,0134,9753417,98933,2226,700573
202025,424—9,1397,26412.3110,4976089,8893,7553,4863306,26632,8959,409590
201923,362—9,6747,84212.889,1506188,5323,5097,7023086,03726,9509,673609
201823,747—10,2638,39412.6211,29673810,5583,50717,7943116,94529,51012,500665
201722,849—9,9731,9792.6911,17766410,5133,3653,1603293,80034,19025,241735
201622,991—9,7947,72210.2410,3547389,6162,9982,9653113,24130,19329,875754
201521,662—8,4706,9399.069,7315949,1372,3961,8673224,14429,18228,083766
201420,063—6,1915,1586.708,9527188,2341,8511384083,73130,21525,778770
201318,676—5,8675,0816.646,2916935,5981,4158324033,80529,62322,096765
201217,265—5,5774,3455.525,8826895,1931,1184,6073623,25726,52919,060787
201115,582—4,3123,6834.045,1195674,5525008,3153416,94621,42819,029912
201015,053—5,5454,6274.795,7875805,20703,7863533,28710,87423,944965
200914,642—5,5064,6054.516,3365305,80603,2082842,88410,60122,6671,021
200815,003—5,2144,0523.775,9886725,316—2,2682621,774—20,8851,075
200714,771—3,9803,0782.745,4011,2674,134—5,1002632,024—18,5121,123

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗