AME
Ametek · Industrials · Electrical Components & Equipment
$249.89
52w 179.79 – 261.16
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$57.3B
P/E
38.5
P/FCF
34.1
FCF yield
2.9%
ROE
13.9%
Shldr yield
1.3%
div 0.5% + bb 0.8%
What today's price assumes
At $57.3B, the market is pricing in 15.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 10.7% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $111 · $182 · $227 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 16.9× across 19 years, AME would trade near $133/share (25th–75th percentile: $113–$162); it trades at 31.8× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+6.4%
Rev 5y
+10.3%
Rev 10y
+6.4%
EPS 5y
+11.2%
EPS 10y
+10.1%
FCF 5y
+6.7%
FCF 10y
+10.7%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $2.0B | +15.0% | $406.9M | +13.5% | 1.77 | $483.7M |
| Q1'26 | $1.9B | +11.3% | $399.4M | +13.5% | 1.74 | $451.5M |
| Q4'25 * | $2.0B | +13.4% | $398.6M | +2.9% | 1.73 | $584.3M |
| Q3'25 | $1.9B | +10.8% | $371.4M | +9.2% | 1.60 | $440.9M |
| Q2'25 | $1.8B | +2.5% | $358.4M | +6.1% | 1.55 | $359.1M |
| Q1'25 | $1.7B | −0.2% | $351.8M | +13.1% | 1.52 | $417.5M |
| Q4'24 * | $1.8B | +1.8% | $387.3M | +12.9% | 1.67 | $550.0M |
| Q3'24 | $1.7B | +5.3% | $340.2M | −0.0% | 1.47 | $487.2M |
| Q2'24 | $1.7B | +5.4% | $337.7M | +4.1% | 1.45 | $381.4M |
| Q1'24 | $1.7B | +8.7% | $310.9M | +1.7% | 1.34 | $410.2M |
| Q4'23 * | $1.7B | +6.5% | $342.9M | +11.7% | 1.48 | $540.7M |
| Q3'23 | $1.6B | +4.6% | $340.4M | +14.4% | 1.47 | $472.9M |
| Q2'23 | $1.6B | +8.7% | $324.2M | +14.8% | 1.40 | $335.2M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +6.4% | +10.3% | +6.4% | +7.6% |
| Operating cash flow | +16.2% | +7.1% | +10.4% | +10.1% |
| Free cash flow | +18.3% | +6.7% | +10.7% | +10.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | +8.5% | +11.2% | +10.1% | +9.0% |
| Equity | +12.4% | +12.3% | +12.6% | +12.7% |
| LT debt | −20.8% | −14.0% | −3.6% | +0.0% |
| Diluted shares | −0.0% | +0.0% | −0.4% | −0.3% |
| Stock price | +21.8% | +14.3% | +19.7% | +16.9% |
$100, 3 years ago
$181vs $192 in SPY
21.8% vs 24.4%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$195vs $181 in SPY
14.3% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$605vs $428 in SPY
19.7% vs 15.6%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,044vs $803 in SPY
16.9% vs 14.9%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$5.11
$26.4B created / $5.2B retained
Last 10 years
$4.96
$41.0B created / $8.3B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
15.4%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.1%
MC vs 10× OCF
3.16
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.6y
SBC / FCF
2.9%
Owner earnings
$1.6B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.8%
Share count 5y
+4.3%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
11.6%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.11
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 55.1% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 12.3% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 6.8% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
19 of 26 checks pass · 73%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
10.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
11.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
6.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
7.1% vs 10.3% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
20.0% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
25.8% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
13.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
15.4% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
22.6% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $1.8B vs NI $1.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.6y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
43% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.10 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$10.6B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
4% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
4.3% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
3% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
43% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.9% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
38.5 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
15.0% vs 10.7% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
1.3% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7,401 | — | 1,910 | 1,480 | 6.40 | 1,802 | 130 | 1,672 | 285 | 434 | 48 | 458 | 1,074 | 10,629 | 231 |
| 2024 | 6,941 | — | 1,780 | 1,376 | 5.93 | 1,829 | 127 | 1,702 | 259 | 212 | 48 | 374 | 1,425 | 9,655 | 232 |
| 2023 | 6,597 | — | 1,707 | 1,313 | 5.67 | 1,735 | 136 | 1,599 | 230 | 8 | 46 | 410 | 1,895 | 8,730 | 232 |
| 2022 | 6,151 | — | 1,501 | 1,160 | 5.01 | 1,149 | 139 | 1,010 | 202 | 333 | 47 | 345 | 2,159 | 7,477 | 232 |
| 2021 | 5,547 | — | 1,309 | 990 | 4.25 | 1,160 | 111 | 1,050 | 185 | 15 | 46 | 347 | 2,229 | 6,872 | 233 |
| 2020 | 4,540 | — | 1,028 | 872 | 3.77 | 1,281 | 74 | 1,207 | 165 | 5 | 42 | 1,213 | 2,281 | 5,949 | 231 |
| 2019 | 5,159 | — | 1,177 | 861 | 3.75 | 1,114 | 102 | 1,012 | 127 | 12 | 40 | 393 | 2,271 | 5,115 | 229 |
| 2018 | 4,846 | — | 1,076 | 778 | 3.34 | 926 | 82 | 843 | 129 | 368 | 27 | 354 | 2,274 | 4,242 | 233 |
| 2017 | 4,300 | — | 904 | 681 | 2.94 | 833 | 75 | 758 | 83 | 7 | 25 | 646 | 1,866 | 4,028 | 232 |
| 2016 | 3,840 | — | 791 | 512 | 2.19 | 757 | 63 | 694 | 83 | 336 | 22 | 717 | 2,063 | 3,257 | 234 |
| 2015 | 3,974 | — | 908 | 591 | 2.45 | 673 | 69 | 603 | 86 | 435 | 24 | 381 | 1,553 | 3,255 | 242 |
| 2014 | 4,022 | — | 899 | 584 | 2.37 | 726 | 71 | 655 | 81 | 245 | 20 | 378 | 1,428 | 3,240 | 247 |
| 2013 | 3,594 | — | 815 | 517 | 2.10 | 661 | 63 | 597 | 58 | 8 | 22 | 295 | 1,142 | 3,136 | 246 |
| 2012 | 3,334 | — | 746 | 459 | 1.88 | 612 | 57 | 555 | 53 | 5 | 19 | 158 | 1,133 | 2,535 | 244 |
| 2011 | 2,990 | — | 636 | 384 | 1.58 | 509 | 51 | 458 | 38 | 59 | 22 | 170 | 1,123 | 2,053 | 243 |
| 2010 | 2,471 | — | 482 | 284 | 1.76 | 423 | 39 | 384 | 29 | 79 | 17 | 163 | 1,071 | 1,775 | 241 |
| 2009 | 2,098 | — | 366 | 206 | 1.27 | 365 | 33 | 332 | 26 | 0 | 14 | 246 | 956 | 1,567 | 162 |
| 2008 | 2,531 | — | 433 | 247 | 1.53 | 247 | 44 | 203 | 26 | 57 | 20 | 87 | 1,093 | 1,288 | 161 |
| 2007 | 2,137 | — | 387 | 228 | 2.12 | 279 | 38 | 241 | 26 | 5 | 16 | 170 | — | 1,241 | 108 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.