AMD
Advanced Micro Devices · Information Technology · Semiconductors
$456.75
52w 149.22 – 584.73
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$745.6B
P/E
182.4
P/FCF
117.4
FCF yield
0.9%
ROE
6.9%
Shldr yield
0.2%
div 0.0% + bb 0.2%
What today's price assumes
At $745.6B, the market is pricing in 32.2% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last five years, FCF actually grew 54.0% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $63 · $141 · $203 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 96.5× across 11 years, AMD would trade near $456/share (25th–75th percentile: $213–$638); it trades at 96.7× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+13.6%
Rev 5y
+28.8%
Rev 10y
+24.1%
EPS 5y
+5.2%
EPS 10y
—
FCF 5y
+54.0%
FCF 10y
—
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2010–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $11.5B | +50.1% | $2.3B | +163.4% | 1.38 | $2.4B |
| Q1'26 | $10.3B | +37.8% | $1.4B | +95.1% | 0.84 | $3.0B |
| Q4'25 * | $10.3B | +34.1% | $1.5B | +213.5% | 0.92 | $2.6B |
| Q3'25 | $9.2B | +35.6% | $1.2B | +61.2% | 0.75 | $2.2B |
| Q2'25 | $7.7B | +31.7% | $872.0M | +229.1% | 0.54 | $2.0B |
| Q1'25 | $7.4B | +35.9% | $709.0M | +476.4% | 0.44 | $939.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $7.7B | +24.2% | $482.0M | −27.7% | 0.30 | $1.3B |
| Q3'24 | $6.8B | +17.6% | $771.0M | +157.9% | 0.47 | $628.0M |
| Q2'24 | $5.8B | +8.9% | $265.0M | +881.5% | 0.16 | $593.0M |
| Q1'24 | $5.5B | +2.2% | $123.0M | — | 0.07 | $521.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $6.2B | +10.2% | $667.0M | +3076.2% | 0.42 | $381.0M |
| Q3'23 | $5.8B | +4.2% | $299.0M | +353.0% | 0.18 | $421.0M |
| Q2'23 | $5.4B | −18.2% | $27.0M | −94.0% | 0.02 | $379.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +13.6% | +28.8% | +24.1% | +11.8% |
| Operating cash flow | +29.3% | +48.4% | +23.9% | — |
| Free cash flow | +29.3% | +54.0% | +32.4% | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +46.7% | +5.2% | +10.4% | +9.9% |
| Equity | +4.8% | +60.9% | +69.7% | +31.7% |
| LT debt | −1.6% | +48.1% | +1.6% | +0.5% |
| Diluted shares | +1.4% | +6.3% | +7.6% | +5.5% |
| Stock price | +62.9% | +32.8% | +51.0% | +32.3% |
$100, 3 years ago
$432vs $176 in SPY
62.9% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$413vs $181 in SPY
32.8% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$6,172vs $412 in SPY
51.0% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$6,687vs $813 in SPY
32.3% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$25.10
$283.9B created / $11.3B retained
Last 10 years
$27.64
$385.6B created / $13.9B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
11.8%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
1.0%
MC vs 10× OCF
10.26
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.3y
SBC / FCF
24.3%
Owner earnings
$5.1B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
0.6%
Share count 5y
+5.5%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
6.7%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.07
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 283.2% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 12.0% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 34.0% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
20 of 27 checks pass · 74%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
28.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
5.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
54.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
8 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
8 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
48.4% vs 28.8% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/7
- pass
Net margin
12.5% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
10.7% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
49.5% vs 44.9% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
6.9% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
11.8% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
19.4% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $7.7B vs NI $4.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
5/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.3y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
236% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.04 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$63.0B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
4% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
5.5% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
24% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
20% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
5 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
0.9% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
182.4 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
32.2% vs 54.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 34,639 | 17,152 | 3,694 | 4,335 | 2.65 | 7,709 | 974 | 6,735 | — | 1,316 | 1,638 | 5,539 | 2,348 | 62,999 | 1,636 |
| 2024 | 25,785 | 12,725 | 1,900 | 1,641 | 1.00 | 3,041 | 636 | 2,405 | — | 862 | 1,407 | 3,787 | 1,721 | 57,568 | 1,637 |
| 2023 | 22,680 | 10,460 | 401 | 854 | 0.53 | 1,667 | 546 | 1,121 | — | 985 | 1,384 | 3,933 | 1,717 | 55,892 | 1,625 |
| 2022 | 23,601 | 10,603 | 1,264 | 1,320 | 0.84 | 3,565 | 450 | 3,115 | — | 3,702 | 1,081 | 4,835 | 2,467 | 54,750 | 1,571 |
| 2021 | 16,434 | 7,929 | 3,648 | 3,162 | 2.57 | 3,521 | 301 | 3,220 | — | 1,762 | 379 | 2,535 | 1 | 7,497 | 1,229 |
| 2020 | 9,763 | 4,347 | 1,369 | 2,490 | 2.06 | 1,071 | 294 | 777 | — | 0 | 274 | 1,595 | 330 | 5,837 | 1,207 |
| 2019 | 6,731 | 2,868 | 631 | 341 | 0.30 | 493 | 217 | 276 | — | 0 | 197 | 1,466 | 486 | 2,827 | 1,120 |
| 2018 | 6,475 | 2,447 | 451 | 337 | 0.32 | 34 | 163 | -129 | — | — | 137 | 1,078 | 1,114 | 1,266 | 1,064 |
| 2017 | 5,253 | 1,787 | 127 | -33 | -0.03 | 12 | 113 | -101 | — | — | 97 | 1,185 | 1,325 | 596 | 952 |
| 2016 | 4,319 | 1,003 | -373 | -498 | -0.60 | 81 | 77 | 4 | — | — | 86 | 1,264 | 1,435 | 477 | 835 |
| 2015 | 3,991 | 1,080 | -481 | -660 | -0.84 | -226 | 96 | -322 | — | — | 63 | 785 | 2,007 | -350 | 783 |
| 2014 | 5,506 | 1,839 | -155 | -403 | -0.53 | -98 | 95 | -193 | — | — | 81 | 805 | 2,025 | 187 | 768 |
| 2013 | 5,299 | 1,978 | 103 | -83 | -0.11 | -148 | 84 | -232 | — | — | 91 | 869 | 1,986 | 544 | 754 |
| 2012 | 5,422 | 1,235 | -1,056 | -1,183 | -1.60 | -338 | 133 | -471 | — | — | 97 | 549 | 2,037 | 538 | 741 |
| 2011 | 6,568 | 2,940 | 368 | 491 | 0.66 | 382 | 250 | 132 | — | — | 90 | 869 | 2,065 | 1,590 | 742 |
| 2010 | 6,494 | 2,961 | 848 | 471 | 0.64 | -412 | 148 | -560 | — | — | 87 | 606 | 2,188 | 1,013 | 733 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.