ALL
Allstate · Financials · Property & Casualty Insurance
$260.19
52w 188.08 – 277.22
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$65.8B
P/E
6.2
P/FCF
6.5
FCF yield
15.4%
ROE
33.6%
Shldr yield
3.5%
div 1.6% + bb 1.9%
What today's price assumes
At $65.8B, the market is pricing in -8.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 11.5% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $596 · $1,037 · $1,293 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 5.4× across 19 years, ALL would trade near $216/share (25th–75th percentile: $187–$252); it trades at 6.5× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+9.6%
Rev 5y
+10.1%
Rev 10y
+6.6%
EPS 5y
+17.1%
EPS 10y
+22.4%
FCF 5y
+13.8%
FCF 10y
+11.5%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $18.6B | +11.8% | $3.3B | +55.1% | 12.51 | $2.6B |
| Q1'26 | $16.9B | +3.0% | $2.5B | +312.9% | 9.25 | $3.6B |
| Q4'25 | $17.3B | +5.1% | $3.8B | +100.3% | 14.37 | $3.0B |
| Q3'25 | $17.3B | +3.8% | $3.7B | +214.8% | 13.95 | $3.3B |
| Q2'25 | $16.6B | +5.8% | $2.1B | +537.2% | 7.76 | $1.9B |
| Q1'25 | $16.5B | +7.8% | $595.0M | −51.1% | 2.11 | $2.0B |
| Q4'24 | $16.5B | +11.3% | $1.9B | +30.1% | 7.07 | $1.7B |
| Q3'24 | $16.6B | +14.7% | $1.2B | — | 4.33 | $3.2B |
| Q2'24 | $15.7B | +12.4% | $331.0M | — | 1.13 | $2.4B |
| Q1'24 | $15.3B | +10.7% | $1.2B | — | 4.46 | $1.7B |
| Q4'23 | $14.8B | +8.7% | $1.5B | — | 5.52 | $1.2B |
| Q3'23 | $14.5B | +9.8% | −$5.0M | — | -0.16 | $1.2B |
| Q2'23 | $14.0B | +14.4% | −$1.4B | — | -5.29 | $1.2B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +9.6% | +10.1% | +6.6% | +5.3% |
| Operating cash flow | +25.4% | +13.0% | +10.8% | +7.0% |
| Free cash flow | +28.1% | +13.8% | +11.5% | +7.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | +66.0% | +17.1% | +22.4% | +23.0% |
| Equity | +20.5% | +0.3% | +4.3% | +3.2% |
| LT debt | −2.0% | −0.9% | +3.9% | +1.6% |
| Diluted shares | −0.5% | −3.3% | −4.1% | −4.6% |
| Stock price | +36.7% | +16.6% | +16.7% | +19.1% |
$100, 3 years ago
$255vs $176 in SPY
36.7% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$216vs $181 in SPY
16.6% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$468vs $412 in SPY
16.7% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,368vs $813 in SPY
19.1% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$2.22
$23.0B created / $10.4B retained
Last 10 years
$1.30
$33.0B created / $25.4B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
26.5%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
14.2%
MC vs 10× OCF
0.63
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.8y
SBC / FCF
1.2%
Owner earnings
$9.8B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
15.2%
Share count 5y
−4.4%
per year; negative = buybacks
Checklist
22 of 24 checks pass · 92%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
10.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
17.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
13.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
8 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
13.0% vs 10.1% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
4/5
- pass
Net margin
15.2% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
33.6% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
26.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
14.6% · ≥ 5%
- fail
Earnings back their cash
OCF $10.1B vs NI $10.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
9% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.24 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$30.6B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-4.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
1% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
23% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
4/4
- pass
FCF yield
15.4% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
6.2 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
-8.1% vs 11.5% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
3.5% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 67,685 | — | — | 10,282 | 38.06 | 10,110 | 228 | 9,882 | 1,036 | 1,233 | 123 | 678 | 7,490 | 30,610 | 267 |
| 2024 | 64,106 | — | — | 4,667 | 16.99 | 8,931 | 210 | 8,721 | 962 | 2 | 125 | 704 | 8,085 | 21,442 | 268 |
| 2023 | 57,094 | — | — | -188 | -1.20 | 4,228 | 267 | 3,961 | 925 | 335 | 73 | 722 | 7,942 | 17,770 | 263 |
| 2022 | 51,411 | — | — | -1,289 | -5.14 | 5,121 | 420 | 4,701 | 926 | 2,520 | 93 | 736 | 7,964 | 17,488 | 271 |
| 2021 | 50,601 | — | — | 1,614 | 5.01 | 5,116 | 345 | 4,771 | 885 | 3,120 | 120 | 763 | 7,976 | 24,944 | 299 |
| 2020 | 41,909 | — | — | 5,576 | 17.31 | 5,491 | 308 | 5,183 | 668 | 1,737 | 124 | 311 | 7,825 | 30,217 | 316 |
| 2019 | 41,541 | — | — | 4,847 | 14.03 | 5,129 | 433 | 4,696 | 653 | 1,735 | 105 | 273 | 6,631 | 25,998 | 334 |
| 2018 | 39,815 | — | — | 2,160 | 5.70 | 5,175 | 277 | 4,898 | 614 | 2,303 | 125 | 425 | 6,451 | 21,312 | 353 |
| 2017 | 39,407 | — | — | 3,554 | 9.35 | 4,314 | 299 | 4,015 | 525 | 1,495 | 106 | 617 | 6,350 | 22,551 | 368 |
| 2016 | 37,399 | — | — | 1,877 | 4.67 | 3,993 | 313 | 3,680 | 486 | 1,337 | 80 | 436 | 6,347 | 20,573 | 377 |
| 2015 | 35,653 | — | — | 2,171 | 5.05 | 3,616 | 303 | 3,313 | 483 | 2,808 | 81 | — | 5,124 | 20,025 | 407 |
| 2014 | 35,239 | — | — | 2,850 | 6.27 | 3,236 | 288 | 2,948 | 477 | 2,301 | 88 | — | 5,140 | 22,304 | 438 |
| 2013 | 34,507 | — | — | 2,280 | 4.81 | 4,242 | 207 | 4,035 | 352 | 1,834 | 93 | — | 6,201 | 21,480 | 470 |
| 2012 | 33,315 | — | — | 2,306 | 4.68 | 3,054 | 285 | 2,769 | 534 | 913 | 86 | — | 6,057 | 20,580 | 493 |
| 2011 | 32,654 | — | — | 787 | 1.50 | 1,929 | 246 | 1,683 | 435 | 953 | 64 | — | 5,908 | 18,298 | 523 |
| 2010 | 31,400 | — | — | 911 | 1.71 | 3,689 | 162 | 3,527 | 430 | 152 | 68 | — | 5,908 | 19,016 | 543 |
| 2009 | 32,013 | — | — | 854 | 1.58 | 4,301 | 189 | 4,112 | 542 | 4 | 74 | — | 5,910 | 16,692 | 541 |
| 2008 | 29,394 | — | — | -1,679 | -3.06 | 3,910 | 291 | 3,619 | 889 | 1,323 | 85 | — | 5,659 | 12,641 | 548 |
| 2007 | 36,769 | — | — | 4,636 | 7.76 | 5,433 | 274 | 5,159 | 901 | 3,604 | — | — | — | 21,902 | 598 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.