ADI
Analog Devices · Information Technology · Semiconductors
$371.17
52w 223.47 – 445.91
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$180.8B
P/E
79.7
P/FCF
42.3
FCF yield
2.4%
ROE
6.7%
Shldr yield
2.3%
div 1.1% + bb 1.2%
What today's price assumes
At $180.8B, the market is pricing in 17.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 19.0% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $135 · $302 · $435 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 15.7× across 19 years, ADI would trade near $156/share (25th–75th percentile: $118–$205); it trades at 37.4× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−2.8%
Rev 5y
+14.5%
Rev 10y
+12.4%
EPS 5y
+6.8%
EPS 10y
+6.5%
FCF 5y
+18.3%
FCF 10y
+19.0%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $4.0B | +39.6% | $1.3B | +158.4% | 2.74 | $1.6B |
| Q2'26 | $3.6B | +37.2% | $1.2B | +106.5% | 2.40 | $872.0M |
| Q1'26 | $3.2B | +30.4% | $830.8M | +112.3% | 1.69 | $1.4B |
| Q4'25 * | $3.1B | +25.9% | $787.7M | +64.8% | 1.60 | $1.7B |
| Q3'25 | $2.9B | +24.6% | $518.5M | +32.2% | 1.04 | $1.2B |
| Q2'25 | $2.6B | +22.3% | $569.8M | +88.5% | 1.14 | $819.5M |
| Q1'25 | $2.4B | −3.6% | $391.3M | −15.4% | 0.78 | $1.1B |
| Q4'24 * | $2.4B | −10.1% | $478.1M | −4.1% | 0.95 | $1.1B |
| Q3'24 | $2.3B | −24.8% | $392.2M | −55.3% | 0.79 | $855.0M |
| Q2'24 | $2.2B | −33.8% | $302.2M | −69.1% | 0.61 | $807.9M |
| Q1'24 | $2.5B | −22.7% | $462.7M | −51.9% | 0.93 | $1.1B |
| Q4'23 * | $2.7B | −16.4% | $498.4M | −46.8% | 1.01 | $1.2B |
| Q3'23 | $3.1B | −1.1% | $877.0M | +17.1% | 1.74 | $1.1B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −2.8% | +14.5% | +12.4% | +9.7% |
| Operating cash flow | +2.4% | +19.1% | +18.2% | +11.1% |
| Free cash flow | +4.3% | +18.3% | +19.0% | +11.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | −4.6% | +6.8% | +6.5% | +4.6% |
| Equity | −2.5% | +23.0% | +20.9% | +17.0% |
| LT debt | +7.5% | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −1.7% | +6.0% | +4.6% | +3.3% |
| Stock price | +28.9% | +19.8% | +21.7% | +20.1% |
$100, 3 years ago
$214vs $176 in SPY
28.9% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$247vs $181 in SPY
19.8% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$711vs $412 in SPY
21.7% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,559vs $813 in SPY
20.1% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$25.32
$83.6B created / $3.3B retained
Last 10 years
$20.57
$114.7B created / $5.6B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
11.5%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
2.6%
MC vs 10× OCF
3.76
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
1.9y
SBC / FCF
7.5%
Owner earnings
$4.0B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.2%
Share count 5y
+2.3%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
30.1%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.41
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 137.8% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 9.8% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 13.5% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
20 of 27 checks pass · 74%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
14.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
6.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
18.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
19.1% vs 14.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/7
- pass
Net margin
20.6% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
26.6% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
61.5% vs 62.7% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
6.7% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
11.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
38.8% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $4.8B vs NI $2.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
1.9y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
31% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.24 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$33.8B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
11% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
2.3% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
8% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
96% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.4% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
79.7 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
17.9% vs 19.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.3% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11,020 | 6,773 | 2,932 | 2,267 | 4.56 | 4,812 | 534 | 4,279 | 1,924 | 2,165 | 322 | 2,499 | 8,145 | 33,816 | 497 |
| 2024 | 9,427 | 5,381 | 2,033 | 1,635 | 3.28 | 3,853 | 730 | 3,122 | 1,795 | 616 | 263 | 1,991 | 6,634 | 35,176 | 499 |
| 2023 | 12,306 | 7,877 | 3,823 | 3,315 | 6.55 | 4,818 | 1,261 | 3,556 | 1,679 | 2,964 | 300 | 958 | 5,902 | 35,565 | 506 |
| 2022 | 12,014 | 7,532 | 3,279 | 2,749 | 5.25 | 4,475 | 699 | 3,776 | 1,545 | 2,577 | 323 | 1,471 | 6,549 | 36,465 | 523 |
| 2021 | 7,318 | 4,525 | 1,692 | 1,390 | 3.46 | 2,735 | 344 | 2,391 | 1,109 | 2,605 | 244 | 1,978 | — | 37,993 | 401 |
| 2020 | 5,603 | 3,690 | 1,498 | 1,221 | 3.28 | 2,008 | 166 | 1,843 | 886 | 244 | 150 | 1,056 | — | 11,998 | 372 |
| 2019 | 5,991 | 4,014 | 1,711 | 1,363 | — | 2,253 | 275 | 1,978 | 777 | 613 | 150 | 648 | — | 11,709 | 373 |
| 2018 | 6,225 | 4,250 | 1,900 | 1,507 | — | 2,442 | 255 | 2,187 | 703 | 226 | 151 | 817 | — | 11,268 | 375 |
| 2017 | 5,246 | 3,168 | 1,163 | 805 | — | 1,154 | 204 | 950 | 602 | 47 | 104 | 1,048 | — | 10,162 | 350 |
| 2016 | 3,421 | 2,227 | 1,028 | 862 | — | 1,291 | 127 | 1,164 | 513 | 370 | 63 | 921 | — | 5,166 | 312 |
| 2015 | 3,435 | 2,259 | 831 | 697 | — | 908 | 154 | 754 | 491 | 227 | 69 | 884 | — | 5,073 | 317 |
| 2014 | 2,865 | 1,830 | 752 | 629 | — | 872 | 178 | 694 | 454 | 356 | 51 | 569 | — | 4,758 | 318 |
| 2013 | 2,634 | 1,692 | 753 | 673 | 2.14 | 912 | 123 | 789 | 406 | 61 | 57 | 392 | — | 4,740 | 314 |
| 2012 | 2,701 | 1,741 | 824 | 651 | 2.13 | 815 | 132 | 682 | 345 | 161 | 54 | 529 | — | 4,165 | 306 |
| 2011 | 2,993 | 1,987 | 1,072 | 867 | 2.81 | 901 | 123 | 778 | 282 | 330 | 52 | 1,405 | — | 3,795 | 308 |
| 2010 | 2,762 | 1,799 | 900 | 712 | 2.33 | 991 | 112 | 880 | 250 | 40 | 52 | 1,405 | — | 3,200 | 306 |
| 2009 | 2,015 | 1,119 | 285 | 248 | 0.85 | 432 | 56 | 376 | 233 | 4 | 49 | 1,070 | — | 2,529 | 293 |
| 2008 | 2,583 | 1,577 | 625 | 786 | 2.65 | 669 | 157 | 512 | 223 | 570 | 50 | 594 | — | 2,420 | 297 |
| 2007 | 2,465 | 1,508 | 569 | 497 | 1.50 | 820 | 142 | 679 | 228 | 1,647 | 73 | 425 | — | — | 332 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.