ADBE
Adobe Inc. · Information Technology · Application Software
$276.27
52w 190.12 – 370.86
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$109.8B
P/E
15.4
P/FCF
11.1
FCF yield
9.0%
ROE
61.3%
Shldr yield
10.3%
div 0.0% + bb 10.3%
What today's price assumes
At $109.8B, the market is pricing in -0.3% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 22.6% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $378 · $847 · $1,221 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 24.8× across 19 years, ADBE would trade near $626/share (25th–75th percentile: $408–$789); it trades at 10.9× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+10.5%
Rev 5y
+13.1%
Rev 10y
+17.4%
EPS 5y
+9.0%
EPS 10y
+29.7%
FCF 5y
+13.2%
FCF 10y
+22.6%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $6.6B | +12.7% | $1.7B | +1.2% | 4.25 | $2.2B |
| Q1'26 | $6.4B | +12.0% | $1.9B | +4.3% | 4.60 | $3.0B |
| Q4'25 * | $6.2B | +10.5% | $1.9B | +10.3% | 4.44 | $3.2B |
| Q3'25 | $6.0B | +10.7% | $1.8B | +5.2% | 4.18 | $2.2B |
| Q2'25 | $5.9B | +10.6% | $1.7B | +7.5% | 3.94 | $2.2B |
| Q1'25 | $5.7B | +10.3% | $1.8B | +192.1% | 4.14 | $2.5B |
| Q4'24 * | $5.6B | +11.1% | $1.7B | +13.5% | 3.75 | $2.9B |
| Q3'24 | $5.4B | +10.6% | $1.7B | +20.0% | 3.76 | $2.0B |
| Q2'24 | $5.3B | +10.2% | $1.6B | +21.5% | 3.49 | $1.9B |
| Q1'24 | $5.2B | +11.3% | $620.0M | −50.3% | 1.36 | $1.2B |
| Q4'23 * | $5.0B | +11.6% | $1.5B | +26.1% | 3.24 | $1.6B |
| Q3'23 | $4.9B | +10.3% | $1.4B | +23.5% | 3.05 | $1.9B |
| Q2'23 | $4.8B | +9.8% | $1.3B | +9.9% | 2.82 | $2.1B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +10.5% | +13.1% | +17.4% | +13.0% |
| Operating cash flow | +8.6% | +11.9% | +21.2% | +15.8% |
| Free cash flow | +10.0% | +13.2% | +22.6% | +16.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | +18.2% | +9.0% | +29.7% | +17.6% |
| Equity | −6.1% | −2.6% | +5.2% | +5.5% |
| LT debt | +19.6% | +8.6% | +12.5% | +9.9% |
| Diluted shares | −3.2% | −2.5% | −1.7% | −1.4% |
| Stock price | −21.0% | −16.1% | +10.4% | +17.3% |
$100, 3 years ago
$49vs $176 in SPY
-21.0% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$42vs $181 in SPY
-16.1% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$270vs $412 in SPY
10.4% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,095vs $813 in SPY
17.3% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$-3.37
−$93.4B created / $27.7B retained
Last 10 years
$2.46
$101.8B created / $41.4B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
56.2%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
9.1%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.09
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.6y
SBC / FCF
19.7%
Owner earnings
$7.9B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
7.2%
Share count 5y
−1.9%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
7.9%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.03
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
24 of 27 checks pass · 89%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
13.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
9.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
13.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
11.9% vs 13.1% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
7/7
- pass
Net margin
30.0% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
36.6% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
89.3% vs 87.7% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
61.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
56.2% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
41.4% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $10.0B vs NI $7.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.6y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
87% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.53 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
$11.6B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
3% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-1.9% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
20% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
115% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
4/4
- pass
FCF yield
9.0% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
15.4 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
-0.3% vs 22.6% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
10.3% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23,769 | 21,218 | 8,706 | 7,130 | 16.70 | 10,031 | 179 | 9,852 | — | 11,281 | 1,942 | 5,431 | 6,210 | 11,623 | 427 |
| 2024 | 21,505 | 19,147 | 6,741 | 5,560 | 12.36 | 8,056 | 183 | 7,873 | — | 9,500 | 1,833 | 7,613 | 4,129 | 14,105 | 450 |
| 2023 | 19,409 | 17,055 | 6,650 | 5,428 | 11.82 | 7,302 | 360 | 6,942 | — | 4,400 | 1,718 | 7,141 | 3,634 | 16,518 | 459 |
| 2022 | 17,606 | 15,441 | 6,098 | 4,756 | 10.10 | 7,838 | 442 | 7,396 | — | 6,550 | 1,440 | 4,236 | 3,629 | 14,051 | 471 |
| 2021 | 15,785 | 13,920 | 5,802 | 4,822 | 10.02 | 7,230 | 348 | 6,882 | — | 3,950 | 1,069 | 3,844 | 4,123 | 14,797 | 481 |
| 2020 | 12,868 | 11,146 | 4,237 | 5,260 | 10.83 | 5,727 | 419 | 5,308 | — | 3,050 | 909 | 4,478 | 4,117 | 13,264 | 486 |
| 2019 | 11,171 | 9,498 | 3,268 | 2,951 | 6.00 | 4,422 | 395 | 4,027 | — | 2,750 | 788 | 2,650 | 989 | 10,530 | 492 |
| 2018 | 9,030 | 7,835 | 2,840 | 2,591 | 5.20 | 4,029 | 267 | 3,762 | — | 2,050 | 610 | 1,643 | 4,125 | 9,362 | 498 |
| 2017 | 7,302 | 6,291 | 2,168 | 1,694 | 3.38 | 2,913 | 178 | 2,735 | — | 1,100 | 454 | 2,306 | 1,881 | 8,459 | 501 |
| 2016 | 5,854 | 5,035 | 1,494 | 1,169 | 2.32 | 2,200 | 204 | 1,996 | — | 1,075 | 349 | 1,011 | 1,892 | 7,425 | 504 |
| 2015 | 4,796 | 4,051 | 903 | 630 | 1.24 | 1,470 | 185 | 1,285 | — | 625 | 336 | 877 | 1,907 | 7,002 | 507 |
| 2014 | 4,147 | 3,525 | 413 | 268 | 0.53 | 1,287 | 148 | 1,139 | — | 600 | 334 | 1,117 | 911 | 6,776 | 508 |
| 2013 | 4,055 | 3,469 | 423 | 290 | 0.56 | 1,152 | 188 | 963 | — | 1,100 | 329 | 835 | 1,499 | 6,725 | 513 |
| 2012 | 4,404 | 3,920 | 1,180 | 833 | 1.66 | 1,500 | 271 | 1,229 | — | 405 | 299 | 1,425 | 1,497 | 6,665 | 503 |
| 2011 | 4,216 | 3,778 | 1,099 | 833 | 1.65 | 1,543 | 210 | 1,333 | — | 695 | 286 | 990 | 1,505 | 5,783 | 504 |
| 2010 | 3,800 | 3,396 | 993 | 775 | 1.47 | 1,113 | 170 | 943 | — | 850 | 231 | 750 | 1,514 | 5,192 | 526 |
| 2009 | 2,946 | 2,649 | 691 | 387 | 0.73 | 1,118 | 120 | 998 | — | 350 | 168 | 999 | 1,000 | 4,891 | 531 |
| 2008 | 3,580 | 3,217 | 1,028 | 872 | 1.59 | 1,281 | 112 | 1,169 | — | 1,723 | 172 | 886 | 350 | 4,410 | 549 |
| 2007 | 3,158 | 2,803 | 858 | 724 | 1.21 | 1,441 | 132 | 1,309 | — | 1,952 | 150 | 946 | — | 4,650 | 599 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.