MMarketMath

ABT

StalwartQuality: High (72/100)

Abbott Laboratories · Health Care · Health Care Equipment

$116.67

52w 81.97 – 137.49

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$203.2B

P/E

31.1

P/FCF

27.5

FCF yield

3.6%

ROE

12.5%

Shldr yield

2.5%

div 2.0% + bb 0.4%

What today's price assumes

At $203.2B, the market is pricing in 12.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 14.8% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $65 · $143 · $179 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 16.2× across 19 years, ABT would trade near $89/share (25th–75th percentile: $27–$108); it trades at 21.2× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+0.5%

Rev 5y

+5.1%

Rev 10y

+8.1%

EPS 5y

+8.3%

EPS 10y

+2.5%

FCF 5y

+5.3%

FCF 10y

+14.8%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $25.9B
2008: $29.5B
2009: $30.8B
2010: $35.2B
2011: $21.4B
2012: $19.1B
2013: $19.7B
2014: $20.2B
2015: $20.4B
2016: $20.9B
2017: $27.4B
2018: $30.6B
2019: $31.9B
2020: $34.6B
2021: $43.1B
2022: $43.7B
2023: $40.1B
2024: $42.0B
2025: $44.3B
$0$20.0B$40.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $3.6B
2008: $4.9B
2009: $5.7B
2010: $4.6B
2011: $4.7B
2012: $6.0B
2013: $2.6B
2014: $2.3B
2015: $4.4B
2016: $1.4B
2017: $477.0M
2018: $2.4B
2019: $3.7B
2020: $4.5B
2021: $7.1B
2022: $6.9B
2023: $5.7B
2024: $13.4B
2025: $6.5B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $3.5B
2008: $5.7B
2009: $6.2B
2010: $7.7B
2011: $7.5B
2012: $7.5B
2013: $2.2B
2014: $2.6B
2015: $1.9B
2016: $2.1B
2017: $4.4B
2018: $4.9B
2019: $4.5B
2020: $5.7B
2021: $8.6B
2022: $7.8B
2023: $5.1B
2024: $6.4B
2025: $7.4B
$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 1.6B
2008: 1.6B
2009: 1.6B
2010: 1.6B
2011: 1.6B
2012: 1.6B
2013: 1.6B
2014: 1.5B
2015: 1.5B
2016: 1.5B
2017: 1.7B
2018: 1.8B
2019: 1.8B
2020: 1.8B
2021: 1.8B
2022: 1.8B
2023: 1.7B
2024: 1.7B
2025: 1.7B
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

0%20%40%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $3.0B
2008: $3.3B
2009: $3.2B
2010: $3.5B
2011: $3.0B
2012: $5.5B
2013: $2.5B
2014: $3.5B
2015: $3.7B
2016: $2.1B
2017: $2.0B
2018: $2.2B
2019: $3.0B
2020: $3.0B
2021: $5.5B
2022: $7.1B
2023: $4.8B
2024: $5.1B
2025: $5.0B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$10.0B$20.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q1'23: $9.7B
Q2'23: $10.0B
Q3'23: $10.1B
Q4'23: $10.2B
Q1'24: $10.0B
Q2'24: $10.4B
Q3'24: $10.6B
Q4'24: $11.0B
Q1'25: $10.4B
Q2'25: $11.1B
Q3'25: $11.4B
Q4'25: $11.5B
Q1'26: $11.2B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
23
23
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q1'23: $1.3B
Q2'23: $1.4B
Q3'23: $1.4B
Q4'23: $1.6B
Q1'24: $1.2B
Q2'24: $1.3B
Q3'24: $1.6B
Q4'24: $9.2B
Q1'25: $1.3B
Q2'25: $1.8B
Q3'25: $1.6B
Q4'25: $1.8B
Q1'26: $1.1B
$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B
23
23
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q1'26$11.2B+7.8%$1.1B−18.7%0.61$1.3B
Q4'25 *$11.5B+4.4%$1.8B−80.8%1.01$3.3B
Q3'25$11.4B+6.9%$1.6B−0.1%0.94$2.8B
Q2'25$11.1B+7.4%$1.8B+36.6%1.01$2.0B
Q1'25$10.4B+4.0%$1.3B+8.2%0.76$1.4B
Q4'24 *$11.0B+7.2%$9.2B+479.0%5.26$2.9B
Q3'24$10.6B+4.9%$1.6B+14.6%0.94$2.7B
Q2'24$10.4B+4.0%$1.3B−5.3%0.74$2.0B
Q1'24$10.0B+2.2%$1.2B−7.1%0.70$1.0B
Q4'23 *$10.2B+1.5%$1.6B+54.3%0.91$3.0B
Q3'23$10.1B−2.6%$1.4B+0.1%0.82$1.9B
Q2'23$10.0B−11.4%$1.4B−31.9%0.78$1.2B
Q1'23$9.7B−18.1%$1.3B−46.1%0.75$1.1B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+0.5%+5.1%+8.1%+1.6%
Operating cash flow−0.1%+3.9%+12.4%+0.6%
Free cash flow−1.8%+5.3%+14.8%−0.3%
EPS (diluted)−1.6%+8.3%+2.5%+1.5%
Equity+12.4%+9.7%+9.4%+5.7%
LT debt−12.0%−11.8%+5.4%−1.6%
Diluted shares−0.3%−0.4%+1.5%+0.8%
Stock price+6.5%+0.3%+12.9%+13.1%

$100, 3 years ago

$121vs $176 in SPY

6.5% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$102vs $181 in SPY

0.3% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$335vs $412 in SPY

12.9% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$630vs $813 in SPY

13.1% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$-0.47

−$10.3B created / $21.6B retained

Last 10 years

$5.94

$141.9B created / $23.9B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

15.4%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

4.7%

MC vs 10× OCF

2.12

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

1.3y

SBC / FCF

9.0%

Owner earnings

$6.7B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

3.3%

Share count 5y

+0.6%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

26.7%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.29

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 19.8% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 18.4% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 3.7% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

23 of 26 checks pass · 88%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

6/7

  • Revenue growth

    5.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    8.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • FCF growth

    5.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Revenue rises consistently

    8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    3.9% vs 5.1% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

6/6

  • Net margin

    14.7% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    18.2% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    12.5% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • Cash ROIC

    15.4% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    16.7% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $9.6B vs NI $6.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

5/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    1.3y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass

  • Cash cushion

    86% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass

  • Leverage

    0.19 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $52.1B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    6% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    0.6% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail

  • Stock comp restrained

    9% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    68% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

3/4

  • FCF yield

    3.6% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    31.1 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    12.0% vs 14.8% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass

  • Shareholder yield

    2.5% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202544,328—8,0536,5243.729,5662,1717,3954,1168936648,5229,89652,1301,748
202441,950—6,82513,4027.648,5582,2076,3513,8361,2956737,61612,62547,6641,748
202340,109—6,4785,7233.267,2612,2025,0593,5561,2276446,89613,59938,6031,749
202243,653—8,3626,9333.919,5811,7777,8043,3093,7956859,88214,52236,6861,764
202143,075—8,4257,0713.9410,5331,8858,6483,2022,2996409,79917,29635,8021,789
202034,608—5,3574,4952.507,9012,1775,7242,5604035466,83818,52732,7841,786
201931,904—4,5323,6872.066,1361,6384,4982,2707185193,86016,66131,0881,781
201830,578—3,6502,3681.336,3001,3944,9061,9742384773,84419,35930,5241,770
201727,390—1,5644770.275,5701,1354,4351,8491174069,40727,21030,8971,749
201620,853—3,0261,4000.943,2031,1212,0821,53952231018,62020,68120,5381,483
201520,405—2,8674,4232.922,9661,1101,8561,4432,2372925,0015,87121,2111,506
201420,247—2,5992,2841.493,6751,0772,5981,3422,1952464,0633,39321,5261,527
201319,657—2,1332,5761.623,3241,1452,1798821,6052623,4753,38825,1711,574
201219,050—1,3605,9633.729,3141,7957,5193,1832,36443310,80218,08526,7211,592
201121,407—1,6294,7283.018,9701,4917,4792,938773836,81312,04024,4401,567
201035,167—6,0884,6262.968,7361,0157,7212,6718673873,64812,52422,6771,556
200930,765—6,2365,7463.697,2751,0896,1862,4148263668,80911,26623,1441,555
200829,528—5,6944,8813.126,9951,2885,7072,1741,0823474,1128,71317,4801,561
200725,914—4,5793,6062.315,1841,6563,5281,9591,0594302,4569,48817,7791,560

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗