MMarketMath

ABBV

StalwartQuality: Medium (48/100)

AbbVie · Health Care · Biotechnology

$264.52

52w 190.75 – 267.47

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$467.4B

P/E

110.8

P/FCF

26.3

FCF yield

3.8%

ROE

-129.2%

Shldr yield

2.7%

div 2.5% + bb 0.2%

What today's price assumes

At $467.4B, the market is pricing in 11.4% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 9.8% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $154 · $235 · $293 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 9.2× across 14 years, ABBV would trade near $99/share (25th–75th percentile: $83–$134); it trades at 24.6× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+1.8%

Rev 5y

+6.0%

Rev 10y

+10.3%

EPS 5y

−2.8%

EPS 10y

−2.8%

FCF 5y

+1.2%

FCF 10y

+9.8%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2011–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2011: $17.4B
2012: $18.4B
2013: $18.8B
2014: $20.0B
2015: $22.9B
2016: $25.6B
2017: $28.2B
2018: $32.8B
2019: $33.3B
2020: $45.8B
2021: $56.2B
2022: $58.1B
2023: $54.3B
2024: $56.3B
2025: $61.2B
$0$20.0B$40.0B$60.0B
11
14
17
20
23

Net income

2011: $3.4B
2012: $5.3B
2013: $4.1B
2014: $1.8B
2015: $5.1B
2016: $6.0B
2017: $5.3B
2018: $5.7B
2019: $7.9B
2020: $4.6B
2021: $11.5B
2022: $11.8B
2023: $4.9B
2024: $4.3B
2025: $4.2B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
11
14
17
20
23

Free cash flow

2011: $5.9B
2012: $6.0B
2013: $5.8B
2014: $2.9B
2015: $7.0B
2016: $6.6B
2017: $9.4B
2018: $12.8B
2019: $12.8B
2020: $16.8B
2021: $22.0B
2022: $24.2B
2023: $22.1B
2024: $17.8B
2025: $17.8B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
11
14
17
20
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2011: 1.6B
2012: 1.6B
2013: 1.6B
2014: 1.6B
2015: 1.6B
2016: 1.6B
2017: 1.6B
2018: 1.5B
2019: 1.5B
2020: 1.7B
2021: 1.8B
2022: 1.8B
2023: 1.8B
2024: 1.8B
2025: 1.8B
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
11
14
17
20
23

Margins

20%40%1113151719212325
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2013: $2.9B
2014: $3.3B
2015: $10.9B
2016: $9.8B
2017: $5.5B
2018: $17.6B
2019: $7.0B
2020: $8.7B
2021: $10.2B
2022: $11.5B
2023: $12.5B
2024: $12.7B
2025: $12.6B
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
11
14
17
20
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$25.0B$50.0B$75.0B1113151719212325
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $13.9B
Q3'23: $13.9B
Q4'23: $14.3B
Q1'24: $12.3B
Q2'24: $14.5B
Q3'24: $14.5B
Q4'24: $15.1B
Q1'25: $13.3B
Q2'25: $15.4B
Q3'25: $15.8B
Q4'25: $16.6B
Q1'26: $15.0B
Q2'26: $17.0B
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $2.0B
Q3'23: $1.8B
Q4'23: $822.0M
Q1'24: $1.4B
Q2'24: $1.4B
Q3'24: $1.6B
Q4'24: −$22.0M
Q1'25: $1.3B
Q2'25: $938.0M
Q3'25: $186.0M
Q4'25: $1.8B
Q1'26: $695.0M
Q2'26: $3.6B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$17.0B+10.2%$3.6B+285.2%2.03$3.4B
Q1'26$15.0B+12.4%$695.0M−46.0%0.39$3.8B
Q4'25$16.6B+10.0%$1.8B—1.02$5.2B
Q3'25$15.8B+9.1%$186.0M−88.1%0.10$7.0B
Q2'25$15.4B+6.6%$938.0M−31.5%0.52$5.2B
Q1'25$13.3B+8.4%$1.3B−6.1%0.72$1.6B
Q4'24$15.1B+5.6%−$22.0M−102.7%-0.02$7.0B
Q3'24$14.5B+3.8%$1.6B−12.2%0.88$5.4B
Q2'24$14.5B+4.3%$1.4B−32.3%0.77$2.3B
Q1'24$12.3B+0.7%$1.4B+472.8%0.77$4.0B
Q4'23$14.3B−5.4%$822.0M−66.8%0.46$4.8B
Q3'23$13.9B−6.0%$1.8B−55.0%1.00$7.6B
Q2'23$13.9B−4.9%$2.0B+119.0%1.14$6.3B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+1.8%+6.0%+10.3%—
Operating cash flow−8.6%+1.6%+9.7%—
Free cash flow−9.8%+1.2%+9.8%—
EPS (diluted)−29.1%−2.8%−2.8%—
Equity−40.0%−5.9%+6.7%—
LT debt+0.7%−5.4%+8.2%—
Diluted shares−0.1%+1.2%+0.8%—
Stock price+25.9%+21.3%+20.1%—

$100, 3 years ago

$200vs $176 in SPY

25.9% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$263vs $181 in SPY

21.3% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$622vs $412 in SPY

20.1% vs 15.2%/yr

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

31.1%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

3.6%

MC vs 10× OCF

2.46

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

3.6y

SBC / FCF

5.4%

Owner earnings

$16.9B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

3.6%

Share count 5y

+0.8%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

9.2%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.02

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Checklist

14 of 26 checks pass · 54%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

4/7

  • Revenue growth

    6.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    -2.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • FCF growth

    1.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • Revenue rises consistently

    8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    1.6% vs 6.0% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

4/6

  • Net margin

    6.9% · ≥ 8%

    fail

  • Operating margin

    24.6% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    -129.2% · ≥ 12%

    fail

  • Cash ROIC

    31.1% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    29.1% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $19.0B vs NI $4.2B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

1/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    3.6y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail

  • Cash cushion

    8% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    -19.73 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    −$3.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    fail

  • Interest burden

    19% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    fail

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    0.8% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail

  • Stock comp restrained

    5% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    71% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

2/4

  • FCF yield

    3.8% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    110.8 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    11.4% vs 9.8% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail

  • Shareholder yield

    2.7% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202561,160—15,0754,2262.3619,0301,21417,81611,6579809555,22964,503-3,2701,773
202456,334—9,1374,2782.3918,80697417,83211,0251,7089115,52466,8413,3251,773
202354,318—12,7574,8632.7222,83977722,06210,5391,97274712,81459,24510,3601,773
202258,054—18,11711,8366.6324,94369524,24810,0431,4876719,20163,12817,2541,778
202156,197—17,92411,5426.4522,77778721,9909,2619346929,74675,96215,4081,777
202045,804—11,3634,6162.7217,58879816,7907,7169787538,44984,94813,0761,673
201933,266—12,9837,8825.2813,32455212,7726,36662943039,92467,233-8,1721,484
201832,753—6,3835,6873.6613,42763812,7895,58012,0144217,28935,002-8,4461,546
201728,216—9,5455,3093.309,9605299,4314,1071,4103659,30330,9535,0971,603
201625,638—9,3405,9533.637,0414796,5623,7176,0333535,10036,4404,6361,631
201522,859—7,5375,1443.137,5355327,0033,2947,5862828,39929,2403,9451,637
201419,960—3,4111,7741.103,5496122,9372,6616652418,34810,5381,7421,610
201318,790—5,6644,1282.566,2674915,7762,5553202129,59514,2924,4921,604
201218,380—5,8175,2753.356,3453336,012——1875,90114,630-3501,577
201117,444—3,6203,4332.186,2473565,891——16327——1,577

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗