AAPL
Apple Inc. · Information Technology · Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
$310.34
52w 224.69 – 344.57
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$4.53T
P/E
40.3
P/FCF
45.7
FCF yield
2.2%
ROE
151.9%
Shldr yield
2.4%
div 0.3% + bb 2.0%
What today's price assumes
At $4.53T, the market is pricing in 19.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 3.5% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $99 · $99 · $124 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 13.4× across 19 years, AAPL would trade near $102/share (25th–75th percentile: $65–$178); it trades at 40.6× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+1.8%
Rev 5y
+8.7%
Rev 10y
+5.9%
EPS 5y
+17.9%
EPS 10y
+11.9%
FCF 5y
+6.1%
FCF 10y
+3.5%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $109.4B | +16.4% | $29.8B | +27.1% | 2.02 | $34.4B |
| Q2'26 | $111.2B | +16.6% | $29.6B | +19.4% | 2.01 | $28.7B |
| Q1'26 | $143.8B | +15.7% | $42.1B | +15.9% | 2.84 | $53.9B |
| Q4'25 * | $102.5B | +7.9% | $27.5B | +86.4% | 1.84 | $29.7B |
| Q3'25 | $94.0B | +9.6% | $23.4B | +9.3% | 1.57 | $27.9B |
| Q2'25 | $95.4B | +5.1% | $24.8B | +4.8% | 1.65 | $24.0B |
| Q1'25 | $124.3B | +4.0% | $36.3B | +7.1% | 2.40 | $29.9B |
| Q4'24 * | $94.9B | +6.1% | $14.7B | −35.8% | 0.97 | $26.8B |
| Q3'24 | $85.8B | +4.9% | $21.4B | +7.9% | 1.40 | $28.9B |
| Q2'24 | $90.8B | −4.3% | $23.6B | −2.2% | 1.53 | $22.7B |
| Q1'24 | $119.6B | +2.1% | $33.9B | +13.1% | 2.18 | $39.9B |
| Q4'23 * | $89.5B | −0.7% | $23.0B | +10.8% | 1.47 | $21.6B |
| Q3'23 | $81.8B | −1.4% | $19.9B | +2.3% | 1.26 | $26.4B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +1.8% | +8.7% | +5.9% | +13.2% |
| Operating cash flow | −3.0% | +6.7% | +3.2% | +12.7% |
| Free cash flow | −3.9% | +6.1% | +3.5% | +12.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | +6.9% | +17.9% | +11.9% | +18.8% |
| Equity | +13.3% | +2.4% | −4.7% | +2.9% |
| LT debt | −7.5% | −4.5% | +3.9% | — |
| Diluted shares | −2.8% | −3.1% | −3.8% | −3.3% |
| Stock price | +18.7% | +15.9% | +29.0% | +24.6% |
$100, 3 years ago
$167vs $176 in SPY
18.7% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$209vs $181 in SPY
15.9% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$1,278vs $412 in SPY
29.0% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$2,694vs $813 in SPY
24.6% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$5.20
$2.19T created / $422.2B retained
Last 10 years
$5.55
$3.45T created / $622.0B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
73.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
2.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
4.05
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.8y
SBC / FCF
13.0%
Owner earnings
$85.9B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.9%
Share count 5y
−2.6%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
12.0%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.09
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
19 of 26 checks pass · 73%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
8.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
17.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
6.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
6.7% vs 8.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/7
- pass
Net margin
26.9% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
32.0% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
46.9% vs 43.3% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
151.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
73.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
23.7% · ≥ 5%
- fail
Earnings back their cash
OCF $111.5B vs NI $112.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
46% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
1.06 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$73.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-2.6% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
13% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
107% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.2% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
40.3 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
19.0% vs 3.5% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.4% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 416,161 | 195,201 | 133,050 | 112,010 | 7.46 | 111,482 | 12,715 | 98,767 | 15,421 | 90,711 | 12,863 | 35,934 | 78,328 | 73,733 | 15,005 |
| 2024 | 391,035 | 180,683 | 123,216 | 93,736 | 6.08 | 118,254 | 9,447 | 108,807 | 15,234 | 94,949 | 11,688 | 29,943 | 85,750 | 56,950 | 15,408 |
| 2023 | 383,285 | 169,148 | 114,301 | 96,995 | 6.13 | 110,543 | 10,959 | 99,584 | 15,025 | 77,550 | 10,833 | 29,965 | 95,281 | 62,146 | 15,813 |
| 2022 | 394,328 | 170,782 | 119,437 | 99,803 | 6.11 | 122,151 | 10,708 | 111,443 | 14,841 | 89,402 | 9,038 | 23,646 | 98,959 | 50,672 | 16,326 |
| 2021 | 365,817 | 152,836 | 108,949 | 94,680 | 5.61 | 104,038 | 11,085 | 92,953 | 14,467 | 85,971 | 7,906 | 34,940 | 109,106 | 63,090 | 16,865 |
| 2020 | 274,515 | 104,956 | 66,288 | 57,411 | 3.28 | 80,674 | 7,309 | 73,365 | 14,081 | 72,358 | 6,829 | 38,016 | 98,667 | 65,339 | 17,528 |
| 2019 | 260,174 | 98,392 | 63,930 | 55,256 | 2.97 | 69,391 | 10,495 | 58,896 | 14,119 | 66,897 | 6,068 | 48,844 | 91,807 | 90,488 | 18,596 |
| 2018 | 265,595 | 101,839 | 70,898 | 59,531 | 2.98 | 77,434 | 13,313 | 64,121 | 13,712 | 72,738 | 5,340 | 25,913 | 93,735 | 107,147 | 20,000 |
| 2017 | 229,234 | 88,186 | 61,344 | 48,351 | 2.42 | 64,225 | 12,451 | 51,774 | 12,563 | 32,900 | 4,840 | 20,289 | 97,207 | 134,047 | 20,000 |
| 2016 | 215,639 | 84,263 | 60,024 | 45,687 | 2.18 | 66,231 | 12,734 | 53,497 | 11,965 | 29,722 | 4,210 | 20,484 | 75,427 | 128,249 | 20,947 |
| 2015 | 233,715 | 93,626 | 71,230 | 53,394 | 2.42 | 81,266 | 11,247 | 70,019 | 11,561 | 35,253 | 3,586 | 21,120 | 53,329 | 119,355 | 22,062 |
| 2014 | 182,795 | 70,537 | 52,503 | 39,510 | 1.69 | 59,713 | 9,571 | 50,142 | 11,031 | 45,000 | 2,863 | 13,844 | 28,987 | 111,547 | 23,317 |
| 2013 | 170,910 | 64,304 | 48,999 | 37,037 | 1.49 | 53,666 | 8,165 | 45,501 | 10,528 | 22,860 | 2,253 | 14,259 | 16,960 | 123,549 | 24,837 |
| 2012 | 156,508 | 68,662 | 55,241 | 41,733 | 1.66 | 50,856 | 8,295 | 42,561 | — | 0 | 1,740 | 10,746 | 0 | 118,210 | 25,202 |
| 2011 | 108,249 | 43,818 | 33,790 | 25,922 | 1.03 | 37,529 | 4,260 | 33,269 | — | 0 | 1,168 | 9,815 | — | 76,615 | 25,202 |
| 2010 | 65,225 | 25,684 | 18,385 | 14,013 | 0.56 | 18,595 | 2,005 | 16,590 | — | — | 879 | 11,261 | — | 47,791 | 24,881 |
| 2009 | 42,905 | 17,222 | 11,740 | 8,235 | 0.34 | 10,159 | 1,144 | 9,015 | — | — | 710 | 5,263 | — | 31,640 | 24,404 |
| 2008 | 37,491 | 13,197 | 8,327 | 6,119 | 0.25 | 9,596 | 1,091 | 8,505 | — | — | 516 | 11,875 | — | 22,297 | 24,273 |
| 2007 | 24,578 | 8,152 | 4,407 | 3,495 | 0.15 | 5,470 | 735 | 4,735 | — | — | 242 | 9,352 | — | 14,531 | 23,928 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.